YEREVAN, December 24. /ARKA/. The situation around Nagorno-Karabakh will not change – neither in short-term nor in mid-term horizons, political scientist, director of Yerevan –based Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan said.
Not the diplomatic efforts, but the balance is the reason why the status quo is maintained, Iskandaryan told a press conference in “Novosti” international press center.
He stressed that it is not only military balance but a complex balance that includes lobbying, economic and geographical components.
“Such a balance cannot change over one day,” he said.
According to the expert, no breakthrough is possible in the negotiations, but it may be possible to make the parties say after another meeting that “another big step has been made toward a great treaty”.
Iskandaryan also said that crossfire cannot be excluded on the border, especially having in mind the upcoming elections in Azerbaijan.
“This crossfire, it is not an accident. Azerbaijani leadership has a rational need for such things, and that is synchronized with political events on Azerbaijan’s internal political arena in particular,” Iskandaryan said.
The Karabakh conflict started in 1988 when prevailingly Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh declared withdrawal from Azerbaijan. On December 10, 1991, a referendum was held in Nagorno-Karabakh where 99.89% voted for independence from Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan responded by large-scale military operations that led to loss of control not only over Nagorno-Karabakh itself, but also over seven adjoining areas. About 25-30 thousands people were killed and about a million had to leave their homes during the military operations.
A trilateral cease-fire agreement was signed on May 12, 2004, and has been followed since then.
The ongoing Karabakh peace process started in 1992 under auspices of OSCE Minsk Group. -0-