World Bank projects 4.2 percent growth for Armenia in 2019
05.04.2019,
15:52
Armenia’s growth is projected to reach 4.2 percent in 2019, and gradually accelerate to around 5 percent in medium term, the World Bank said in Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2019: Financial Inclusion report.
YEREVAN, April 5. /ARKA/. Armenia’s growth is projected to reach 4.2 percent in 2019, and gradually accelerate to around 5 percent in medium term, the World Bank said in Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2019: Financial Inclusion report.
According to the report, private consumption will continue to drive growth, followed by further expansion in exports of goods and services. In line with the fiscal rule, the budget deficit is projected to stay at around 2 percent of GDP over the medium term, further lowering the public debt-to-GDP ratio to below 55 percent in 2021.
Meantime, government capital spending is projected to rebound and support efforts to improve the productivity of the Armenian economy and push up its potential growth. The current account deficit is envisaged to decline gradually, subject to structural reforms which will stimulate further exports of goods and tourism.
The absolute poverty rate (at $3.2 PPP 2011) is expected to fall below the 10 percent mark in 2019, assuming the economy continues to grow, incomes from labor markets rise, and social transfers are sustained. Risks and challenges
The report says uncertainties for Armenia’s outlook are increasing, taking into account Armenia’s limited market and product diversification and moderating global and regional economic activity. Regional currencies could come under renewed pressure; intensification of trade restrictions remains possible, while geopolitical risks could further escalate.
The realization of these risks will put the external accounts under pressure and lower Armenia’s economic growth prospects. On the other hand, the resumption of copper mine operations could push exports and growth rates higher. Domestically, the new government has an opportunity to push key governance and business environment reforms to facilitate job creation, better address social issues and attract investment. While some of these reforms will be challenging, they can also help produce the results needed to mitigate social and political tensions and thereby lower economic uncertainty
Growth projection for the Russian Federation is 1.4%, for Azerbaijan is 3.3%, for Belarus is 2.2%, for Georgia is 4.6%, for Kazakhstan is 3.5%, for Kyrgyzstan is 4.3%, for Moldova is 3.6%, for Tajikistan is 6%, for Ukraine is 2.7% and for Uzbekistan is 5.3%. -0-
According to the report, private consumption will continue to drive growth, followed by further expansion in exports of goods and services. In line with the fiscal rule, the budget deficit is projected to stay at around 2 percent of GDP over the medium term, further lowering the public debt-to-GDP ratio to below 55 percent in 2021.
Meantime, government capital spending is projected to rebound and support efforts to improve the productivity of the Armenian economy and push up its potential growth. The current account deficit is envisaged to decline gradually, subject to structural reforms which will stimulate further exports of goods and tourism.
The absolute poverty rate (at $3.2 PPP 2011) is expected to fall below the 10 percent mark in 2019, assuming the economy continues to grow, incomes from labor markets rise, and social transfers are sustained. Risks and challenges
The report says uncertainties for Armenia’s outlook are increasing, taking into account Armenia’s limited market and product diversification and moderating global and regional economic activity. Regional currencies could come under renewed pressure; intensification of trade restrictions remains possible, while geopolitical risks could further escalate.
The realization of these risks will put the external accounts under pressure and lower Armenia’s economic growth prospects. On the other hand, the resumption of copper mine operations could push exports and growth rates higher. Domestically, the new government has an opportunity to push key governance and business environment reforms to facilitate job creation, better address social issues and attract investment. While some of these reforms will be challenging, they can also help produce the results needed to mitigate social and political tensions and thereby lower economic uncertainty
Growth projection for the Russian Federation is 1.4%, for Azerbaijan is 3.3%, for Belarus is 2.2%, for Georgia is 4.6%, for Kazakhstan is 3.5%, for Kyrgyzstan is 4.3%, for Moldova is 3.6%, for Tajikistan is 6%, for Ukraine is 2.7% and for Uzbekistan is 5.3%. -0-
