Central Bank considering several scenarios in context of global uncertainty
YEREVAN, May 7. /ARKA/. Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia Martin Galstyan spoke about the scenarios that the regulator is working on in the context of a complex geopolitical situation in the world.
"During the spring sessions of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the word "uncertainty" was used most often," Galstyan noted at a press conference on Tuesday.
Global uncertainty
"There is no person, no institution, no group of economists who could say how events will develop. Geopolitical or geoeconomic developments are even more unpredictable," Galstyan stated.
According to him, on the one hand, there are opinions that the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation is close to a denouement, on the other hand, the same people say that the Ukrainian problem does not have a quick solution. The head of the Central Bank noted that in its scenarios, the regulator is considering a number of possible options for further developments.
A successful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation
As one of the options, Galstyan identified a favorable outcome of this conflict. "The parties come to an agreement, as a result of which a positive sentiment follows, which has already manifested itself in terms of the ruble exchange rate. As a result, (anti-Russian) sanctions will be lifted. European countries will join this agreement. Trade will intensify, relations will begin to normalize," he noted.
At the same time, Galstyan asks the question: "what will happen to those financial flows that went through Armenia or are already in Armenia?" Continuation of the conflict
If the US fails to bring both sides of the conflict to the negotiating table, Russian sanctions will begin to tighten. "We were hinted at this during various meetings. And this is a very likely scenario," Galstyan said.
At the same time, the head of the Central Bank asked a number of questions regarding what would happen to Armenia in the event of these scenarios.
"How tough will the sanctions be? Will the package of new sanctions affect the energy resources that Armenia exports from Russia. Can we refuse energy resources or will Armenia be "allowed" to use them because it is vitally important for it," the head of the Central Bank asked.
