EBRD: Armenia's economy to grow by 4% in 2023 and by 4.8% in 2024

YEREVAN, February 17. /ARKA/. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Armenia's economy to grow by 4% in 2023 and by 4.8% in 2024.

In its latest report "Regional Economic Prospects (February 2023 Update)" EBRD says exports from the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States to some Central Asian and Caucasus countries have increased by more than 80 percent, with growth particularly marked for Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, two members of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union t (EEU) that provide duty-free trade with Russia.

According to the report, while this additional (intermediate) trade represents a small share of the decline in Russia's direct imports from the West, it represents 4-6% of GDP (annualized) in Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic having also contributed to the development of the related logistics industry and financial services.

EBRD analysts also note that production in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus (excluding Ukraine) exceeded expectations in 2022, thanks to strong growth in Armenia and Georgia.

"However, growth is expected to slow to 2.7 percent in 2023 and then moderately accelerate in 2024, to 3.6 percent, as the impact of extraordinary factors related to changes in trade routes around Russia and inflows of capital and skilled migrants wanes," the report said.

Armenia's government growth projection for 2023 is set at 7%, and inflation is set at 4% (±1.5%).

The World Bank predicts that Armenia's economic growth in 2023 will be 4.1%. Fitch in February projected the Armenian economy to grow to 6.1% in 2023 and to 4.7% in 2024 -0-