Expert forecasts 4.5-5% growth for Armenia in 2021
YEREVAN, June 2. /ARKA/. Tigran Jrbashyan, the head of Management Advisory Services at Ameria Group of Companies, said today he expects Armenia’s economy to expand in 2021 by 4.5-5%.
He said to understand economic growth trends, the low base effect needs to be considered, as the second quarter of 2020 saw the highest recession.
“Against the background of a strong decline in the second quarter of 2020, we expected 10% growth for the second quarter of 2021. On an annualized basis, our forecast was 4.5-5% growth, based on the phenomenon that in the third and fourth quarters the effect of a low base decrease and, therefore, the growth rate would be 5-7% compared to the previous year, which in terms of the communicative effect and a decline of 3.3% at the end of 2020, in general, would result in 4.5-5% growth," said Jrbashyan.
In reality, according to him, there are some problems, especially due to the fact that practically in all countries, given the low base effect, the indicators were higher than in Armenia and it is necessary to understand that “with regard to the international trend, the rates of recovery do not inspire great joy .
Another issue, he said, is the fact that the country avoided serious risks following the snap June 20 elections and was able to form political certainty that will have a serious positive impact.
"I think that in the 3rd and 4th quarters we will try to restore what we could not in the 1-2 quarters and because of political uncertainties," Jrbashyan said.
Armenia's acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on July 1 that the economic growth projection for 2021 was revised upward from the previously forecast of 3.2% to 6 %.
On June 15, Armenia's Central Bank chairman Martin Galstyan said the regulator had again revised upward its economic growth forecast for 2021 to 4.6%. According to him, the upward revision was prompted by the growth in the services sector, which the bank believes will grow by 6.2% this year, up from its earlier forecast of 1.2%.
Also, the industrial output is expected to grow by 4%, up from the earlier forecast of 0.4%. The growth is driven mainly by increased prices for commodities, as well Armenia's government's GDP growth projection for 2021 is 3.2%, while inflation is expected to be 4% (± 1.5%).
The World Bank forecasts for 3.4% growth for 2021, 4.3% for 2022 and 5.3% for 2023. The IMF expects 1% growth in 2021.
According to S&P Global Ratings, Armenia's real GDP growth will be 2.5% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022-2023. -0-.
