IMF revises upwards its forecast for Armenia’s growth in 2022
YEREVAN, October 12. /ARKA/. According to the latest IMF World Economic Outlook report, Armenia's economy is expected to grow by 7% in 2022 and slow down to 3.5% in 2023. The updated forecast is up from a 5% growth projected by the previous report, released in June.
The October report also says that inflation in Armenia in 2022 will make 8.5% and drop to 7% in 2023.
The Armenian government’s growth projection for 2022 is 7%; the inflation is set at 4% (± 1.5%). Armenia's Central Bank revised earlier upwards its economic growth forecast for 2022 from 4.9% to 12.9%.
According to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, Armenia's GDP in 2022 is expected to grow by 3.5%, down 1.3 p.p. from the previous forecast, made in January.
World Bank analysts expect Armenia's GDP to grow by 4.6% in 2023 (0.8 p.p. down from the January forecast) and by 4.9% in 2024.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in its September update of the Asian Development Outlook report that it expects Armenia’s economy to grow by 7% in 2022 and to slower to 4.5% in 2023.
The IMF latest report says global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades.
The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook.
Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023.
This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024.
Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation. -0-
