Armenia’s economic losses from COVID-19 already make up 14.2% of GDP

YEREVAN, April 29. /ARKA/. As of April 24, the total losses of Armenia’s economy from the state of emergency declared to curb the spread of COVID-19 made up 14.2% of GDP, former Armenian economy minister Armenia Armen Yeghiazaryan, Ph.D., who is now an associate professor at the Russian-Armenian University’s Department of Economic Theory and Problems of the Economy in Transition, said Tuesday at the webinar "Problems of Forming the Economic Policy of Armenia in the Period and After COVID-19".

"According to the calculations of the ex-minister of economy of Armenia Vahram Avanesyan, Armenia loses $ 51 million in one day of emergency. As of April 24, the total losses were 14.2% of GDP," he said.

Yeghiazaryan also considered what would have happened if Armenia had not declared quarantine. Recalling that there are two countries that did not declare quarantine - Sweden and Belarus, he noted that the introduction of a special regime and the self-organization of society are the most important indicators of the spread of infection.

"There are three factors that influence the spread of infection. The first factor is quarantine and the second is self-organization of the society with respect to social distance and public safety rules. Third is the natural pace of spread of infection," he explained.

The ex-minister noted that the spread of the coronavirus in Armenia is 46% affected by the quarantine factor, 11% by self-awareness and self-organization, and natural causes have 43% of the external influence on the infection.

The expert emphasized that each country has its own characteristics in the pace of reduction in the spread of coronavirus, as well as mortality rates, which can vary significantly.

“The quarantine aims to reduce the pace of the natural spread, which reduces the number of cases and deaths, but with a different ratio for different countries. Nevertheless, the example of Sweden and Belarus shows that the most powerful influence factor is the natural reduction in the pace of spread of coronavirus,” he said .

The ex-minister singled out a special group of countries coronavirus, such as the United States, Italy, Russia and Germany, where restrictions and organization of society are introduced, but the natural rate of infection spread remains the most important factor. He also included Armenia in this group.

Yeghiazaryan said that in Sweden the natural factor for reducing the disease is 80% and in Belarus 100%. In Germany this indicator is 0.4%, in Italy - 46%, in the USA - 39% and in Russia - 96.7 %.

“If we compare the indicators of Sweden with other countries, we can say that there was no need for quarantine. Sweden is already at the final stage, while Belarus is still far from it. Everything depends on the natural rate of infection and the self-organization of society,” he repeated.

Speaking about financial losses due to the introduction of quarantine, Yeghiazaryan noted that Sweden, due to the exclusion of quarantine, saves about $ 1.5 billion a day, Belarus - $ 200 million.

"At the same time, Germany, under conditions of incomplete quarantine, loses an average of $ 10 billion a day, Russia - an average of 224 billion rubles, the United States under partial quarantine - an average of $ 30 billion and Italy under quarantine - $5 billion, "he said.

According to Yegiazaryan’s forecast, the coronavirus pandemic will end in the world, with the exception of China and South Korea, by June 18.

"The number of deaths will be 1 million people or 7% of the world's population. The total number of cases will be about 15 million," he said.

In his previous forecast voiced on April 24, Yeghiazaryan did not rule out that the coronavirus pandemic would end in Armenia in mid-May. The expert noted that the number of cases of COVID-19 in Armenia may be 2293, and the number of deaths - 43.

A state of emergency in order to suppress the spread of the coronavirus operates in Armenia from March 16 to April 14. Restrictions on free movement and certain types of economic activity in Armenia in a state of emergency (previously imposed for the period from March 24 to March 31) were extended until April 12 inclusive.

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10:48 04/29/2020