Armenia's economic activity slows in October due to services sector slowdown – Finance Ministry
YEREVAN, December 5. /ARKA/. Economic activity in Armenia in October stood at 4.2%, slowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to September, primarily due to the slowdown in the growth rate of the services sector. This is stated in the “Review of Macroeconomic Developments: October 2024” by the Ministry of Finance of Armenia.
"As a result, economic activity increased by 8.1% in January-October," the study says.
It is noted that the growth in the industrial sector, which began in November last year, sharply slowed in April-May, primarily due to a slowdown in the growth of the jewelry industry and the production of basic metals. However, since July, there has been a noticeable trend of accelerating industrial growth, mainly driven by faster growth in the production of basic metals and food products.
"Despite recent developments, in January-October, industry remained one of the main sectors contributing to the growth of economic activity (contributing 2.1 percentage points), trailing behind services (contributing 3 percentage points) and trade (contributing 2.6 percentage points). The growth of construction also continued to support economic activity (contributing 1.2 percentage points)," the review says.
According to data for January-September, industrial growth was mainly driven by increased metal production, agricultural growth by the expansion of crop production, construction growth (by financing sources) by increased construction funded by the population and the state budget, service sector growth by the rise in financial and insurance activities, and trade sector growth by the expansion of wholesale trade.
Armenia's economic growth is projected at 7% in the 2024 state budget. The Central Bank of Armenia expects the country's economic growth in 2024 to range from 6.5% to 5.8%. The draft state budget for 2025 forecasts economic growth at 5.6%.
The EDB forecasts Armenia's GDP growth at 6% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025. The WB expects Armenia's economy to grow by 5.5% in 2024 and 5% in 2025. The IMF predicts a 6% growth in Armenia's economy in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025. The EBRD anticipates economic growth in Armenia of 6.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025. The ADB projects 5.7% growth for 2024 and 6% for 2025. According to Fitch Ratings, Armenia's economy will grow by 6% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025. S&P forecasts 6.2% growth for Armenia's economy in 2024, while the UN expects the Armenian economy to grow by 5.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025.
