Armenia's economic growth rate to slow to 5% in 2025 - Fitch forecast
20.07.2025,
08:00
Armenia's economic growth rate will slow to 5% in 2025, and to 4.7% in 2026-2027, compared to an average of 8.9% in 2022-2024, according to a report by international rating agency Fitch Ratings dated July 18, 2025.
YEREVAN, July 20. /ARKA/. Armenia's economic growth rate will slow to 5% in 2025, and to 4.7% in 2026-2027, compared to an average of 8.9% in 2022-2024, according to a report by international rating agency Fitch Ratings dated July 18, 2025.
It is indicated that Armenia's real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 amounted to 5.2% year-on-year, thanks to very strong performance in financial services (27.5% year-on-year) and construction (14%), which was facilitated by public capital investments.
"However, since the beginning of the year, we have seen a contraction in manufacturing and mining output. As one-off effects from large transit trade with Russia and the influx of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh and other migrants subside, we expect GDP growth to slow," the agency's analysts note.
At the same time, Fitch believes that the Amulsar gold mine, which is likely to start operations in the fourth quarter of 2025, will contribute to economic growth in the medium term.
In the current report, published on July 18, Fitch Ratings affirmed Armenia's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a 'Stable' Outlook.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
Armenia's economic growth is envisaged at 5.1% in the state budget for 2025. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, by the end of 2025, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 5.1-4.6%, depending on the scenario (A-B), in 2026 - 4.9-4.4%, in 2027 - 4.7-5%.
The EDB forecasts Armenia's GDP growth at 5.5% in 2025. The WB expects Armenia's economy to grow by 4% in 2025, the IMF - by 4.5%, the EBRD - by 5%, and the ADB - by 6%. According to the forecast of Fitch Ratings, Armenia's economy will grow by 4.9% in 2025, and the UN expects the Armenian economy to grow by 5.2% in 2025.
It is indicated that Armenia's real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 amounted to 5.2% year-on-year, thanks to very strong performance in financial services (27.5% year-on-year) and construction (14%), which was facilitated by public capital investments.
"However, since the beginning of the year, we have seen a contraction in manufacturing and mining output. As one-off effects from large transit trade with Russia and the influx of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh and other migrants subside, we expect GDP growth to slow," the agency's analysts note.
At the same time, Fitch believes that the Amulsar gold mine, which is likely to start operations in the fourth quarter of 2025, will contribute to economic growth in the medium term.
In the current report, published on July 18, Fitch Ratings affirmed Armenia's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a 'Stable' Outlook.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
Armenia's economic growth is envisaged at 5.1% in the state budget for 2025. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, by the end of 2025, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 5.1-4.6%, depending on the scenario (A-B), in 2026 - 4.9-4.4%, in 2027 - 4.7-5%.
The EDB forecasts Armenia's GDP growth at 5.5% in 2025. The WB expects Armenia's economy to grow by 4% in 2025, the IMF - by 4.5%, the EBRD - by 5%, and the ADB - by 6%. According to the forecast of Fitch Ratings, Armenia's economy will grow by 4.9% in 2025, and the UN expects the Armenian economy to grow by 5.2% in 2025.
