Armenia's economic activity growth slowed to 7.4% in first 11 months of 2024
YEREVAN, December 25. /ARKA/. According to preliminary data, Armenia's economic activity indicator for January-November 2024 registered a 7.4% increase compared to the same period in 2023, as reported by the National Statistical Committee of Armenia.
It should be noted that the growth rate of economic activity has been declining since March of this year. Specifically, economic activity increased by 14.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, 13.2% in the first four months, 11.2% in five months, 10.4% in the first half of the year, 9.6% in seven months, 9% in eight months, 8% in nine months, and 8.1% in ten months.
In November, the economic activity indicator increased by 1.2% compared to November of the previous year, with no change compared to October.
The growth recorded in the first eleven months of this year was seen across all sectors of the economy, although data on the agricultural sector and the average monthly nominal salary are not available.
During the reporting period, industrial output amounted to 2,673,149.3 million drams, an increase of 7.6% compared to January-November 2023. However, in November, the year-on-year decline in industrial output was 19%, and the month-on-month decline was 0.5%.
The construction sector grew by 14.9% in the first eleven months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, amounting to 567,022.5 million drams. In November, the year-on-year growth was 11.6%, and the month-on-month growth was 6.4%.
Domestic trade turnover reached 5,603,922.3 million drams during the first eleven months of the year, an 18% increase compared to the same period last year. In November, the year-on-year growth was 11.5%, and the month-on-month growth was 5.4%.
According to the data, the service sector (excluding trade) reached 3,026,624.6 million drams during the reporting period, a 6.3% increase compared to the same period in 2023. In November, growth was 10.4% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month.
Economic Outlook and Forecasts: Economic growth in Armenia for 2024 is forecast at 7% in the state budget, and 5.1% in the budget for 2025. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of 2024, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 6% by the end of the year. Forecasts for 2025 range between 7.1-4.8%, for 2026 between 4.7-7%, and for 2027 between 5-6.2%.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) projects 6% GDP growth for Armenia in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025. The World Bank expects 5.5% growth in 2024 and 5% in 2025. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts 6% growth for 2024 and 4.9% for 2025. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) anticipates 6.2% growth for 2024 and 4.8% for 2025. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts 5.7% growth in 2024 and 6% in 2025. Fitch Ratings expects 6% growth for Armenia in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025. Standard & Poor's (S&P) predicts 6.2% growth in 2024, while the United Nations expects 5.2% growth in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025.
