Armenia’s growth potential is about 5 percent per year,according to IMF
'YEREVAN, December 23. /ARKA/. 'Over the longer term we believe Armenia’s growth potential is about 5 percent per year, said IMF Resident Representative in Armenia, Umang Rawat, in an interview with the ARKA news agency.
'This is somewhat higher than in our previous analyses, reflecting structural developments that contribute to higher growth, such as the implementation of economic reforms supported by successive IMF programs, the immigration of a sizable community of highly skilled workers from Russia, the integration of a large number of refugees into the economy and steps towards implementing the peace agenda,' he added.
According to Umang Rawat, thanks to the authorities’ agile policies and inflows of labor and capital, real GDP grew on average by almost 9 percent annually over the past three years, despite a series of shocks amid an uncertain global environment. He added that this year, growth is moderating to a more sustainable level, with the latest IMF report projecting growth at 5 percent in 2025 and looking ahead, in both 2026 and 2027 IMF forecast somewhat higher growth of around 5½ percent, mainly reflecting the ramping up of production at a new large gold mine.
He said on the downside, IMF sees the risk of a reduction in global trade and investment leading to slower growth in important trading partners, which would reduce demand for Armenia’s exports.
' In addition, renewed regional tensions and geopolitical shifts could lead to volatility in the exchange rate, potentially adversely affecting consumption, trade, and the housing market,' he said.
He added:' On the upside, rapid implementation of the peace agreement with Azerbaijan and normalization of trade relations with neighboring countries could improve regional cooperation. Together with the construction of transit rail and road connections in southern Armenia as well as restoration of the Gyumri-Kars railway connection these projects could support higher economic growth in Armenia through reduced logistics costs and increased trade. Faster-than-anticipated implementation of reforms to improve the business environment and labor market could also boost growth, particularly over the medium term.'
Armenia's economic growth is projected at 5.1% for the 2025 state budget and 5.4% for 2026.
According to the Central Bank, the GDP growth for Armenia is anticipated to reach between 5.9% and 5.9% by the end of 2025, between 6.3% and 4.1% in 2026, and between 4.9% and 5.3% in 2027.-0-
