Armenia's Central Bank expects the economy to grow by 6.5-5.8% in 2024

YEREVAN, September 12. /ARКА/. The Central Bank of Armenia expects the country's economic growth in 2024 to be between 6.5% and 5.8%, according to the regulator's report on monetary policy for the third quarter of this year.

Central Bank Chairman Martin Galstyan previously announced the launch of a new second-generation monetary policy analysis and forecasting system (FPAS Mark II) in 2024. Thus, in its forecasts, the Central Bank relies on two scenarios: in the first scenario (A), the regulator's inflation forecasts are higher than those of market participants, and in the second scenario (B), they are lower.

Thus, in scenario "A", Armenia's GDP growth in 2024 is projected at 6.5%, and in scenario "B" - at 5.8%. The forecast for 2025 is 5.9% and 3.7%, for 2026 - 5.5% and 5.5% respectively, and for 2027 - 5.4% and 5.5%, respectively.

This year, the industrial sector is expected to grow by 4.7% in Scenario A and 4.5% in Scenario B, agriculture - by 3.7% in both scenarios, construction sector- by 14.5% and 13.7%, services - by 6.7% and 6.5%, and net taxes - by 1.1% and 0.6% respectively.

Scenario A assumes inflation in Armenia at 2.1% by the end of this year, and Scenario B - at 2%. The forecast for 2025 is 4-3.2%, for 2026 - 4.2-3.8%, and for 2027 - 4% in both scenarios. 

The economic growth of Armenia in the state budget for 2024 is envisaged at 7%.  According to preliminary official statistics, Armenia's GDP grew by 6.4% and amounted to about 2.3 trillion drams in the second quarter of 2024.-0-

 

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19:07 09/12/2024