Asatryan: Armenian economy under threat of significant decline

YEREVAN, September 10. /ARKA/. A significant decline threatens to Armenia's economy despite some progress, Bagrat Asatryan, a former head of the Central Bank of Armenia, said in an interview with ARKA News Agency.  

«The Armenian economy is under the threat of decline,» he said. «It has been said in the beginning of this year that economy might fall 10%, but it seems this will not happen this year. We will find ourselves in an inflation pressure cycle, and Armenia's flagging economy will be under inflation pressing for several years.»

Asatryan said that the devaluation of the Russian ruble will impact also Armenia's currency and Armenia can do little in this situation to change something.  

«We should adapt to this things and should not deter the Armenian dram from devaluating to support Armenian exporters,» Asatryan said in his interview. «The central bank should change its policy substantially and should stop interfering in foreign exchange market. The regulator has other obligations and intervention is not an effective method for solving this problem. The central bank should not only to target inflation, but should also support economic growth and employment in our specific system and in the current situation.»

Many international financial organizations lowered their outlooks for economic growth in Armenia in 2015. According to the latest reports, the World Bank predicts 0.8% economic growth, the Eurasian Development Bank forecasts 3.8%, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects stagnation and Asian Development Bank a 1.6% growth. 

Fitch agency expects a mild recession triggered by deterioration in things in Russia and Moody's forecasts a 2.3% growth. 

In the government budget for 2015, GDP growth  is projected at 4.1% and inflation at 4% (±1.5%).----0----