EBRD leaves its GDP growth outlook for Armenia unchanged
10.05.2018,
16:21
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has left its previous 2018 GDP growth forecast for Armenia unchanged at 3.5% saying it rebounded strongly in 2017.
YEREVAN, May 10. /ARKA/. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has left its previous 2018 GDP growth forecast for Armenia unchanged at 3.5% saying it rebounded strongly in 2017.
In its latest Regional Economic Prospects in the EBRD Regions report for May 2018 EBRD says Armenian economy grew by 7.5 per cent last year, benefiting from positive trends in major trading partners and a recovery in domestic demand.
It says the annual growth in exports of goods and services averaged 19.4 per cent in 2016-17 in real volume terms. In 2017, the revival of growth in household consumption was supported by a 14.6 per cent rise in money transfers from abroad.
On a sectoral level, growth was broad-based with construction output returning to growth in 2017 after several consecutive years of decline. Inflation gradually increased to 1 per cent in 2017 and further to 3.3 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018 but it remains below the central bank’s target of 4 per cent.
The public debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at close to 59 per cent of GDP in 2017. To put it on a declining path, Armenia has pursued fiscal consolidation and took steps to optimize planning of investment projects funded by international donor organizations. Economic indicators remained on a positive trajectory in the first quarter of 2018. We forecast Armenia’s economy to grow by 3.5 per cent in 2018 and by 4.5 per cent in 2019. However, domestic political uncertainty might weigh on the pace of output expansion this year. Unresolved conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region also poses a risk to the growth outlook.
The World Bank forecast for Armenia is 4.1%, that of IMF is 3.5% and that of Asian Development Bank is 4%.
The EBRD report also predicts 5.1% growth for Uzbekistan, 5% growth for Tajikistan, 4.5% growth for Georgia, 3.9% growth for Kazakhstan, 3.7% growth for Kyrgyzstan, 3.5% growth for Moldova, 3% growth for Ukraine and Belarus, 2.5% growth for Azerbaijan and 1.5% growth for Russia.
Armenian government projection for 2018 is 4.5%, inflation forecast is 4% (±1.5%)..-0-
In its latest Regional Economic Prospects in the EBRD Regions report for May 2018 EBRD says Armenian economy grew by 7.5 per cent last year, benefiting from positive trends in major trading partners and a recovery in domestic demand.
It says the annual growth in exports of goods and services averaged 19.4 per cent in 2016-17 in real volume terms. In 2017, the revival of growth in household consumption was supported by a 14.6 per cent rise in money transfers from abroad.
On a sectoral level, growth was broad-based with construction output returning to growth in 2017 after several consecutive years of decline. Inflation gradually increased to 1 per cent in 2017 and further to 3.3 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018 but it remains below the central bank’s target of 4 per cent.
The public debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at close to 59 per cent of GDP in 2017. To put it on a declining path, Armenia has pursued fiscal consolidation and took steps to optimize planning of investment projects funded by international donor organizations. Economic indicators remained on a positive trajectory in the first quarter of 2018. We forecast Armenia’s economy to grow by 3.5 per cent in 2018 and by 4.5 per cent in 2019. However, domestic political uncertainty might weigh on the pace of output expansion this year. Unresolved conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region also poses a risk to the growth outlook.
The World Bank forecast for Armenia is 4.1%, that of IMF is 3.5% and that of Asian Development Bank is 4%.
The EBRD report also predicts 5.1% growth for Uzbekistan, 5% growth for Tajikistan, 4.5% growth for Georgia, 3.9% growth for Kazakhstan, 3.7% growth for Kyrgyzstan, 3.5% growth for Moldova, 3% growth for Ukraine and Belarus, 2.5% growth for Azerbaijan and 1.5% growth for Russia.
Armenian government projection for 2018 is 4.5%, inflation forecast is 4% (±1.5%)..-0-
