EDB expects inflation in Armenia to reach 3.3% by the end of 2026 with the refinancing rate in the 6.25-6.5% range
YEREVAN, February 9. /ARKA/. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) anticipates a 3.3% increase in consumer prices in Armenia year-on-year by the conclusion of 2026, while the refinancing rate is expected to stay around 6.25–6.5%. This information is included in the EDB's weekly macroeconomic review.
The bank's analysts highlight that the rise in inflation to 3.8% year-on-year in January, up from 3.3% at the end of 2025, is attributed to escalating food prices (which increased by 5.9% year-on-year, following a 4.3% year-on-year rise the previous month), influenced by global price trends. Concurrently, inflation for services and non-food items has decreased (2.9% y/y down from 3.1% y/y) and (0.9% y/y for January compared to the previous month), respectively.
"In light of this situation, the Central Bank of Armenia opted to keep the key rate at 6.5% during its meeting on February 3, in response to ongoing risks from external inflationary pressures," the report indicates.
The state budget for Armenia in 2026 anticipates an inflation rate of 3% (±1%). As per the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the last quarter of the previous year, inflation in Armenia is projected to be between 3.8% and 2.6% by the end of 2026, depending on scenarios (A-B), with forecasts ranging from 3.3% to 2.8% for 2027.-0-
