EDB names factors of decline in Armenia's industrial sector and negative dynamics of exports and imports for 5 months

YEREVAN, June 30. /ARKA/. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) named the reasons for the continued decline in Armenia's industrial sector and the negative dynamics of exports and imports in January-May of this year.

According to preliminary data from Armstat, Armenia's economic activity indicator in January-May 2025 registered growth of 5.7% compared to the five months of 2024.

As noted in the EDB's weekly macro forecast, growth was provided by the services (+10.1% y/y), trade (+4.2% y/y) and construction (+17.1% y/y) sectors.

"In January-May, the decline in the industrial sector (-14.1% y/y) continued: the positive effect of increasing foreign trade in precious metals and their processing at the beginning of last year was exhausted. For the same reason, the negative dynamics of exports and imports continued in January-May (-57.1% y/y and -42.0% y/y, respectively)," the study says.

Analysts noted that, at the same time, the negative impact on economic activity was offset by the growth of domestic demand and maintained the forecast for economic growth of 5.5% this year.

Figures and forecasts for the Armenian economy

The economic growth of Armenia in the state budget for 2025 is envisaged at 5.1%. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, by the end of 2025, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 5.1-4.6% depending on the scenario (A-B), in 2026 - 4.9-4.4%, in 2027 - 4.7-5%. The EDB forecasts Armenia's GDP growth at 5.5% in 2025. The WB expects Armenia's economy to grow by 4% in 2025, the IMF - by 4.5%, the EBRD - by 5%, and the ADB - by 6%. According to the forecast of Fitch Ratings, Armenia's economy will grow by 4.9% in 2025, and the UN expects the Armenian economy to grow by 5.2% in 2025.