EDB projects 1% growth for Armenia in 2022
YEREVAN, May 30, /ARKA/. According to the Macroeconomic Outlook for 2022–2024 released by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), Armenia’s GDP growth in 2022 is projected at 1.0%.
The baseline scenario projects that Russia’s GDP will contract by 7.0% and a significant decline of 6.5% is also projected for Belarus due to disruptions in production and logistics chains, increased uncertainty, and Western sanctions.
The growth in Kazakhstan is projected at 2.5%, in Kyrgyzstan at 1.1%, and in Tajikistan at 4.2%. According to the outlook, hopes for sustained post-pandemic economic growth are all but nullified. Energy, food and fertilizer prices have reached multi-year highs, exacerbating last year’s inflation problem.
EDB says the major central banks have had to react to the massive inflation and have already started to tighten monetary policies. The global economy is once again witnessing disruptions in production and logistics chains, and weakening consumer and investment activity.
This combination of supply and demand shocks suggests a slowdown in the post-pandemic recovery and a fairly substantial likelihood of a recession in the world’s major economies in 2022–2023.
It will take longer for the EDB region’s aggregate growth rates to return to positive values than in previous crisis periods. While GDP contractions in 2009, 2015, and 2020 in most of the region’s countries were followed by growth the following year, the economic slowdown in 2022 is likely to be followed by growth in Russia and Belarus in 2024 only.
“However, the other EDB member countries are expected to see acceleration in growth rates as early as 2023. According to the baseline projections, Kazakhstan’s economy will grow by 4.8% in 2023, driven by increased consumer and investment activity and government programs aimed at improving household incomes and promoting business development. GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia will be 1.6% and 3.5%, respectively, as a result of exporters and migrant workers’ reorientation to new markets,” said Ruslan Dalenov, EDB Vice Chairman.
Armenian government’s growth projection for 2022 is 7%, and the inflation is set at 4% (± 1.5%). Earlier, the Central Bank revised its growth forecast for 2022 1.6% from an earlier projection of 5.3%. Armenia's economic activity index (EAI) in the first 4 months of 2022 registered a 9.4% year-on-year growth, the National Statistical Committee reported earlier.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is an international financial institution. Its member countries are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia, and Tajikistan. The EDB's charter capital totals US $7 billion. Its portfolio mainly consists of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and mechanical engineering. -0-
