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NEWS » Economy » Fitch ratings revises Armenia's economic growth projections
Economy

Fitch ratings revises Armenia's economic growth projections

29.07.2024, 11:09
Fitch Ratings updated its economic growth forecast for Armenia on Saturday
Fitch ratings revises Armenia's economic growth projections

YEREVAN, July 29. /ARKA/. Fitch Ratings updated its economic growth forecast for Armenia on Saturday, anticipating a 6% growth in 2024, 5.5% in 2025, and 5.1% in 2026.

This is a revision from its January 2024 forecast, which expected a 6% growth in 2024 followed by a decrease to 4.9% in 2025.

The updated forecast highlights the continued benefits of internal migration flows from Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Nagorno-Karabakh, which have positively impacted Armenia's economy. Real GDP grew by 8.7% in 2023 and maintained a 9.2% year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter of 2024. Significant drivers of growth are expected to be the tourism and information and communication technology (ICT) sectors, with the commencement of the Amulsar gold mine operations in 2025 further boosting exports and economic growth.

Economic Activity Indicator

According to preliminary data from the National Statistical Committee of Armenia, the economic activity indicator showed a 10.4% increase in January-June 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

Various Economic Growth Forecasts

  • Government Budget: The 2024 state budget projects an economic growth of 7%.

  • Central Bank of Armenia (CBA): Forecasts growth in the range of 5.3%-6.4% for 2024.

  • Eurasian Development Bank (EDB): Predicts a 5.7% growth in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025.

  • World Bank (WB): Expects the economy to grow by 5.5% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025.

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a 5% growth for 2024.

  • European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD): Anticipates a 6.2% growth in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025.

  • Asian Development Bank (ADB): Projects 5.7% growth in 2024 and 6% in 2025.

  • Fitch Ratings: Predicts 6% growth in 2024, 5.5% in 2025, and 5.1% in 2026.

  • Standard & Poor's (S&P): Forecasts a 6.2% growth in 2024.

  • United Nations (UN): Expects the economy to grow by 5.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025.


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