IMF: Armenia's GDP growth projected to reach 5% in 2025, with inflation expected to align with the Central Bank's target

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Economy

17.10.2025, 16:07

The real GDP growth in Armenia is anticipated to hit 5% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, while inflation is expected to remain close to the target set by the Central Bank of Armenia by the end of 2025.

IMF: Armenia's GDP growth projected to reach 5% in 2025, with inflation expected to align with the Central Bank's target

YEREVAN, October 17. /ARKA/. The real GDP growth in Armenia is anticipated to hit 5% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, while inflation is expected to remain close to the target set by the Central Bank of Armenia by the end of 2025.

This prediction is outlined in a report by the IMF following the visit of the Fund's mission, led by Alexander Timan, to Yerevan from September 17-30.

"The risks associated with this forecast are mainly linked to uncertainties stemming from ongoing global trade tensions, potential slowdowns among trading partners, and regional geopolitical risks," the report indicates.

It further mentions that growth may surpass expectations if net exports perform better than anticipated and "if the transport links related to the peace declaration are expedited."

The declaration, signed in Washington on August 8 by the leaders of Armenia, the United States, and Azerbaijan, reinforced the commitment to execute the regional initiative "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP).

The IMF highlighted that robust economic activity persists in Armenia, with a real GDP growth of 5.6% in the first half of the year, driven by a resurgence in consumption and investment, alongside growth in tourism.

Employment growth has remained steady, while inflation saw a temporary rise to 3.7% (y/y) in September, primarily due to increases in food and service prices.

Armenia's state budget for 2025 anticipates economic growth of 5.1%. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the third quarter of this year, the s GDP growth is projected to be between 5.8% and 5.7% by the end of 2025, 5.7% to 6.2% in 2026, and 5% to 6.3% in 2027.-0-

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