IMF forecasts economic growth slowdown in Armenia

YEREVAN, December 18. /ARKA/. The IMF predicts a slowdown in Armenia’s economic growth in the medium term, though there is potential for increased growth capacity.

"Armenia's economy continues to have a positive outlook despite the multiple shocks of recent years. Supported by strong domestic demand, real GDP growth is projected to reach approximately 6% in 2024, moderating to around 5% in 2025. In the medium term, growth is expected to slow to around 4.5%, though accelerating structural reforms could enhance growth potential," the fund stated.

As noted by IMF Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chairman Bo Li, Armenia's economic outlook is positive, characterized by sustainable growth and low inflation.

"The results of the Stand-By Arrangement program are strong, but consistent, prudent policies and reform efforts remain crucial for preserving reserves and enhancing resilience in an still uncertain domestic and external environment," he said.

Figures and Forecasts for the Armenian Economy

Armenia's economic growth is projected at 7% in the state budget for 2024 and 5.1% in the 2025 budget. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for Q4 of this year, GDP growth is expected to reach 6% by the end of 2024. The forecast for 2025 ranges from 4.8% to 7.1%, with projections for 2026 at 4.7%-7% and for 2027 at 5%-6.2%.

The EDB forecasts 6% GDP growth for Armenia in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025. The World Bank anticipates 5.5% growth in 2024 and 5% in 2025. The IMF forecasts a 6% growth rate for Armenia in 2024, with a slowdown to 4.9% in 2025. The EBRD expects growth of 6.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025. The ADB projects 5.7% growth for 2024 and 6% for 2025. Fitch Ratings forecasts 6% growth in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025, while S&P predicts 6.2% growth in 2024. The UN expects the Armenian economy to grow by 5.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025.