Rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict could lead to higher fuel prices in Armenia
09.03.2026,
18:16
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the sharp reduction in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have caused a significant rise in global oil prices.
YEREVAN, March 9. /ARKA/. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the sharp reduction in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have caused a significant rise in global oil prices. On Monday morning, the price per barrel increased by approximately 26%, exceeding $119—the highest level since 2022.
The oil market is traditionally sensitive to geopolitical risks, especially when they affect key transport routes. A significant portion of the global oil and petroleum product trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, any restrictions on shipping in this area immediately affect investor expectations and put additional pressure on prices.
Geopolitics as a Price Factor
According to economist Grant Mikaelyan, the current price increase is linked not only to military action but also to the logistical risks that accompany the conflict. According to him, the situation could have both short-term and longer-term consequences for the oil market.
The short-term factor is related to restrictions on energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. Longer-term risks, according to the expert, are associated with possible damage to the export infrastructure of oil-producing countries in the region, including Iran.
"If part of the infrastructure is disabled, this could impact supply volumes for a longer period," he noted.
Mikaelyan does not rule out a further rise in oil prices if the conflict continues to escalate or transport restrictions persist.
The expert also commented on the possible consequences for Armenia. Although Armenia is not an oil-producing country, the domestic fuel market depends on imported supplies and is therefore sensitive to changes in the global market environment.
According to Mikaelyan, in the short term, rising global prices do not immediately affect retail fuel prices. This is due to importers holding stocks of petroleum products purchased at previous prices. However, these stocks are limited in time. "Typically, reserves are designed to last for approximately one to two months. However, companies rarely wait until reserves are completely depleted: as soon as new fuel shipments are purchased at a higher price, retail prices begin to adjust," the expert explained.
In his opinion, the first price changes on the domestic market may appear after importers begin concluding new contracts at updated global prices.
Price increases in Armenia will be gradual.
Professor and Doctor of Economics Tatul Manaseryan notes that the impact of global price increases on the Armenian market may manifest itself gradually.
According to him, the structure of fuel imports to Armenia includes supplies from several countries. Some gasoline comes from Iran, but a significant share comes from Russia.
"This creates a certain diversification of supplies. At the same time, Russia's role as a supplier may increase in the face of instability in the global market," Manaseryan noted.
He believes that an increase in gasoline prices in Armenia is practically inevitable if global oil prices remain at current levels. However, according to the expert, price increases will be more gradual than in countries where the fuel market is directly dependent on short-term exchange fluctuations.
Risk of Further Price Increases
The duration of the conflict in the Middle East remains a key factor for the global oil market. The longer tensions in the region persist, the higher the likelihood that geopolitical risks will be factored into energy prices.
Additional pressure on prices could arise if the conflict widens or if restrictions on oil transportation via strategic sea routes are further imposed.
Under these circumstances, fuel-importing countries, including Armenia, are dependent on global price movements. Therefore, changes in the global energy market almost inevitably impact domestic fuel prices.
The conflict in the Middle East escalated after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28. In response, Tehran launched a series of large-scale attacks, and the standoff escalated into full-scale military action, which is already having a significant impact on global energy markets.
The oil market is traditionally sensitive to geopolitical risks, especially when they affect key transport routes. A significant portion of the global oil and petroleum product trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, any restrictions on shipping in this area immediately affect investor expectations and put additional pressure on prices.
Geopolitics as a Price Factor
According to economist Grant Mikaelyan, the current price increase is linked not only to military action but also to the logistical risks that accompany the conflict. According to him, the situation could have both short-term and longer-term consequences for the oil market.
The short-term factor is related to restrictions on energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. Longer-term risks, according to the expert, are associated with possible damage to the export infrastructure of oil-producing countries in the region, including Iran.
"If part of the infrastructure is disabled, this could impact supply volumes for a longer period," he noted.
Mikaelyan does not rule out a further rise in oil prices if the conflict continues to escalate or transport restrictions persist.
The expert also commented on the possible consequences for Armenia. Although Armenia is not an oil-producing country, the domestic fuel market depends on imported supplies and is therefore sensitive to changes in the global market environment.
According to Mikaelyan, in the short term, rising global prices do not immediately affect retail fuel prices. This is due to importers holding stocks of petroleum products purchased at previous prices. However, these stocks are limited in time. "Typically, reserves are designed to last for approximately one to two months. However, companies rarely wait until reserves are completely depleted: as soon as new fuel shipments are purchased at a higher price, retail prices begin to adjust," the expert explained.
In his opinion, the first price changes on the domestic market may appear after importers begin concluding new contracts at updated global prices.
Price increases in Armenia will be gradual.
Professor and Doctor of Economics Tatul Manaseryan notes that the impact of global price increases on the Armenian market may manifest itself gradually.
According to him, the structure of fuel imports to Armenia includes supplies from several countries. Some gasoline comes from Iran, but a significant share comes from Russia.
"This creates a certain diversification of supplies. At the same time, Russia's role as a supplier may increase in the face of instability in the global market," Manaseryan noted.
He believes that an increase in gasoline prices in Armenia is practically inevitable if global oil prices remain at current levels. However, according to the expert, price increases will be more gradual than in countries where the fuel market is directly dependent on short-term exchange fluctuations.
Risk of Further Price Increases
The duration of the conflict in the Middle East remains a key factor for the global oil market. The longer tensions in the region persist, the higher the likelihood that geopolitical risks will be factored into energy prices.
Additional pressure on prices could arise if the conflict widens or if restrictions on oil transportation via strategic sea routes are further imposed.
Under these circumstances, fuel-importing countries, including Armenia, are dependent on global price movements. Therefore, changes in the global energy market almost inevitably impact domestic fuel prices.
The conflict in the Middle East escalated after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28. In response, Tehran launched a series of large-scale attacks, and the standoff escalated into full-scale military action, which is already having a significant impact on global energy markets.
