World Bank: remittances remain resilient but likely to slow
YEREVAN, June 15. /ARKA/. Officially recorded remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are estimated to grow by 1.4% to $656 billion in 2023 as economic activity in remittance source countries is set to soften, limiting employment and wage gains for migrants, according to the World Bank’s latest Migration and Development Brief released on June 13.
This edition of the Brief also revises upwards 2022’s growth in remittance flows to 8%, reaching $647 billion. In the post-COVID period of slower economic growth and falling foreign direct investments, remittance inflows have become more important to countries and households, given their resilience as a source of external financing, particularly for LMICs with high external debt.
During 2022, remittances were supported by strong oil prices in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which increased migrants’ incomes; large money transfers from the Russian Federation to countries in Central Asia; and the strong labor market in the United States and advanced migrant destination economies.
By region, remittance inflows grew by 0.7% in East Asia and the Pacific, 19% in Europe and Central Asia, 11.3% in Latin America and the Caribbean, 12.2% in South Asia, and 6.1% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Remittance inflows declined by 3.8% for the Middle East and North Africa region.
The top five recipient countries for remittances in 2022 were India (receiving $111 billion), Mexico ($61 billion), China ($51 billion), the Philippines ($38 billion), and Pakistan ($30 billion). Economies where remittance inflows represent large shares of GDP—highlighting the importance of remittances for funding current account and fiscal shortfalls— include Tajikistan (51% of GDP), Tonga (44%), Lebanon (36%), Samoa (34%) and the Kyrgyz Republic (31%).
Globally, the average cost of sending $200 was 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, up slightly from 6% a year ago, and more than twice the Sustainable Development Goal target of 3%, according to the Bank’s Remittances Prices Worldwide Database.
Banks are the costliest channel for sending remittances, with an average cost of 11.8%, followed by post offices (6.3%), money transfer operators (5.4%), and mobile operators (4.5%). While mobile operations are the cheapest, they account for less than 1% of total transaction volume.
Private money transfers sent to Armenia from abroad via banks in the first quarter of 2023 tripled from the first quarter of 2022 to about $1.6 bln, according to a Central Bank report.
In 2022, a record US$5.190 billion in personal remittances were sent to Armenia with $3.6 billion coming from Russia, also a record amount.-0-
