Opinion: Azerbaijan can hardly launch war in Karabakh conflict zone

YEREVAN, August 31. /ARKA/. Hovhannes Igityan, a member of Armenian National Movement’s board, thinks Azerbaijan can hardly launch a war in the Karabakh conflict zone.

He finds probability of a war very low.

“First, Azerbaijan enjoys great diplomatic and political advantages over Armenia in the international arena and thinks it can use them,” Igityan said at a news conference. “If Azerbaijan launches a war, it may not to reach success within a few days. If so, Azerbaijan will loss these advantages.”

Igityan said that Baku relies heavily on its lobbyist activity and cooperation with Ankara.

The second factor that will deter Azerbaijan from triggering a war is Russia’s military presence in Armenia.

However, this presence has also adverse impacts – Russia is strengthening its influence on Armenia.

“If Russia agrees with some solution or document on Karabakh not in favor to Armenia, it will have mechanisms for pressing us.”

Confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan began in 1988, when Karabakh, mainly populated by Armenians, declared its independence from Azerbaijan.

On December 10, 1991, a few days after the collapse of the Soviet Union, a referendum took place in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the majority of the population (99.89%) voted for secession from Azerbaijan.

Afterwards, large-scale military operations began. As a result, Azerbaijan lost control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven regions adjacent to it.

Some 30,000 people were killed in this war and about one million people fled their homes.

On May 12, 1994, the Bishkek cease-fire agreement put an end to the military operations.

Since 1992, talks brokered by OSCE Minsk Group are being held over peaceful settlement of the conflict. The group is co-chaired by USA, Russia and France.-0---