Aleksandr Iskandaryan on political parties' chances in June 20 snap parliamentary elections
YEREVAN, April 30. /ARKA/. Armenia's Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party, which is part of the My Step alliance, dominating now the National Assembly, has a chance to win the early parliamentary elections, scheduled to take place on June 20, in the first round, according to Aleksandr Iskandaryan, director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute.
'Pashinyan needs snap polls to restart his administration's bureaucratic legitimacy now, since the big question is whether he would be able to do this in three years if no snap polls are held and as long as there is such an opportunity, he will use it,” Iskandaryan said.
'With two months still going before the elections, the major contesters are more or less known, one of which is the former ruling Republican Party of Armenia of ex-president Serzh Sargsyan,' he said.
According to Iskandaryan, the findings of various public opinion polls are not trustworthy, as many are conducted through telephone encompassing the capital city Yerevan only. Nevertheless, he said, about a third of the voters are ready to back Pashinyan's party or the alliance it will form.
“If this popularity rating is true, then with a small turnout the number of votes in his favor may surge to 40%, and if the administrative resource is used, the support for Pashinyan may grow up to 50% plus votes, and that would be a first round victory,” Iskandaryan said.
Iskandaryan says when campaigning Pashinyan will place the focus on his supporters beyond the capital city, on people with little education, which is a correct strategy.
“This can be seen from his rhetoric, and from what Pashinyan says. It is almost a U-turn from what he would say after the velvet revolution in 2018, when the focus was modernization, Europeanness, while the current motto is "that everything must be done to prevent the old ones (Robert Kocharyan, Serzh Sargsyan) from coming back to power and then we will give you everything and everything will be fine.'
According to Iskandaryan, ex-President Robert Kocharyan has very serious chances to get into parliament and even take the second place, if the elections were held next Monday.
“It is already clear that he will be focusing on defending the interests of Nagorno-Karabakh with the nationalist electorate, who are terribly frustrated because of the defeat in the war and blame it on Pashinyan. Kocharyan will also be bragging his 'competence,' claiming that 'these people cannot manage the country, they are incompetent, but I can.”
As for the Republican Party of Armenia, which is going to form an alliance with the Hayrenik (Homeland) party of the former head of the National Security Service Artur Vanetsyan, they will most likely work in the same electoral field as Kocharyan and will take away each other's votes.
Iskandaryan believes that the leader of the Prosperous Armenia party Gagik Tsarukyan has a traditional electorate, who will vote for him based on some considerations.
According to Iskandaryan's estimates, other parties will have little chance of overcoming the 5% threshold.
Iskandaryan says that after the elections there will be accusations of vote rigging, backed by videos and verbal accusations and the political crisis will not end, and will be unfolding until the next early elections. -0-
