S&P: Azerbaijan's demand that Armenia change its Constitution remains the main obstacle to peace
08.12.2025,
09:47
The most politically sensitive barrier to a full peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains Azerbaijan's expectation that Armenia will amend its constitution to remove language implying potential claims on Karabakh, a change that faces significant domestic resistance in Yerevan, the international rating agency S&P Global thinks.
YEREVAN, December 8. /ARKA/. The most politically sensitive barrier to a full peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains Azerbaijan's expectation that Armenia will amend its constitution to remove language implying potential claims on Karabakh, a change that faces significant domestic resistance in Yerevan, the international rating agency S&P Global thinks.
According to it, the earlier dispute over an extraterritorial corridor to Nakhchivan has been settled politically, with both sides accepting that all new routes will operate fully under host-state sovereignty. However, the detailed design of security protocols, customs procedures, and infrastructure sequencing still needs to be agreed.
'The peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan has entered its most constructive phase in decades, but the transition from a high-level political declaration to a comprehensive, legally grounded settlement remains incomplete. The August 2025 U.S.-brokered declaration delivered a decisive breakthrough by committing both sides to mutual recognition and accelerated border delimitation and the reopening of regional transport routes. Yet, because the agreement is not legally binding, core institutional components (such as security guarantees, monitoring arrangements, and provisions for former Karabakh Armenians) have not been codified, limiting its durability,’ S&P says.
It adds that the implementation since the declaration has moved slowly. The risk of a return to large-scale conflict has declined significantly, but the absence of a formal peace treaty means the process depends heavily on continued political will and progress in technical negotiations.
According to S&P, without mutually acceptable security and operational arrangements, the current phase of stability could prove vulnerable to domestic or regional shocks. Notably, both governments plan to reduce defense spending in their 2026 budgets, a shift that further signals reduced near-term military tensions and confidence in the political trajectory of the peace process.
According to it, the earlier dispute over an extraterritorial corridor to Nakhchivan has been settled politically, with both sides accepting that all new routes will operate fully under host-state sovereignty. However, the detailed design of security protocols, customs procedures, and infrastructure sequencing still needs to be agreed.
'The peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan has entered its most constructive phase in decades, but the transition from a high-level political declaration to a comprehensive, legally grounded settlement remains incomplete. The August 2025 U.S.-brokered declaration delivered a decisive breakthrough by committing both sides to mutual recognition and accelerated border delimitation and the reopening of regional transport routes. Yet, because the agreement is not legally binding, core institutional components (such as security guarantees, monitoring arrangements, and provisions for former Karabakh Armenians) have not been codified, limiting its durability,’ S&P says.
It adds that the implementation since the declaration has moved slowly. The risk of a return to large-scale conflict has declined significantly, but the absence of a formal peace treaty means the process depends heavily on continued political will and progress in technical negotiations.
According to S&P, without mutually acceptable security and operational arrangements, the current phase of stability could prove vulnerable to domestic or regional shocks. Notably, both governments plan to reduce defense spending in their 2026 budgets, a shift that further signals reduced near-term military tensions and confidence in the political trajectory of the peace process.
