Armenia's Foreign Intelligence Service considers likelihood of major conflict with Azerbaijan low
YEREVAN, January 23. /ARKA/. The Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia has published its annual risk assessment report, which indicates that, based on available information, the likelihood of a large-scale conflict with Azerbaijan is considered low.
“At the same time, in the absence of a treaty-based peace and interstate relations, within the framework of Azerbaijan's policy of threatening the use of force against Armenia, the risk of local tensions and escalation along the border will remain," the report states.
The report notes that the reduction of risks is possible through the continued process of border demarcation.
It also points out that one of the FIS’s tasks is to assess whether Azerbaijan's consistent development and financing of various harmful discourses against Armenia's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity is an attempt to legitimize intentions to use force against Armenia.
"These discourses include the so-called 'Western Azerbaijan and Western Azerbaijanis,' 'militarization of Armenia,' 'revanchism,' and the 'Zangezur corridor,'" the report highlights.
The document emphasizes that the delay in establishing peace and normalizing relations significantly increases uncertainty regarding Azerbaijan's true intentions.
Furthermore, it notes that under these conditions, "there is a real risk of maintaining tense interstate relations, which may escalate further due to alliance regroupings or transformations of historical alliances in the region."
"The risks of maintaining tense interstate relations are also rising due to Azerbaijan's official government rhetoric, attempts to interfere in Armenia's internal affairs, and efforts to impose unilateral demands in the negotiation process by artificially introducing various topics. The likelihood of further use of this approach in 2025 remains high," the report states.
The service warns that Azerbaijan will continue to develop its offensive capabilities in 2025, shortening the period between the highest-level political decision to initiate a military operation and the onset of hostilities.
"Azerbaijan will continue to focus on transitioning to more mobile units, preparing reserves, acquiring and importing new weapons, and upgrading military infrastructure," the FIS cautions.
