Armenia's withdrawal from EEU at the stage of negotiations on joining the EU will cost 30-40% of its GDP – Shoigu
YEREVAN, March 20. /ARKA/. Armenia will lose many privileges if it joins the European Union, as it will have to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu told reporters.
"According to the most conservative estimates, withdrawal from the EEU at the stage of the negotiation process to join the European Union will cost Armenia 30-40% of its GDP. This will cause critical damage to the country's economy, and a drop in production, labor market contraction, rising unemployment and inflation will lead to a sharp decline in living standards. At the same time, Yerevan should not count on generous subsidies from the EU, given the state of the European economy," Shoigu was quoted by Tass as saying.
According to him, in exchange for the prospect of European integration, Armenian citizens will have to give up the privileges of the EEU single labor market, including employment without permits, simplified registration, free medical care, free education and much more.
Shoigu recalled that remittances to Armenia from Russia account for about 15% of the country's GDP.
"Taking into account the fact that many of Armenian labor migrants will have to return to their homeland from Russia, and they are not welcome in Europe, we can confidently predict that money transfers from abroad to the Armenian economy will decrease, and quite significantly," Shoigu said.
In his opinion, in this case it will be necessary to urgently create new jobs, and the country does not have the necessary investment resources for that.
In addition, Armenia will have to restructure the entire system of standards and certification to meet EU requirements.
"In practice, it means at least stagnation and at most destruction of the existing industry, including metallurgy, food and light industry," he explained.
In addition, Shoigu said, Armenia will be obliged to impose customs duties on goods imported from Russia and other EEU countries and, accordingly, cancel duties on goods from EU countries.
"Naturally, the customs union and free trade with the EEU countries will be out of the question. It will also have to leave the CIS free trade zone," he added. Armenia's trade turnover with the EEU countries amounted to 12.7 billion US dollars in 2024, while with the EU countries to 2.3 billion USD. "The difference is almost 6 times," Shoigu said.
In addition, Shoigu is sure that Armenia will not be able to change export directions, as Armenian goods are not expected in Europe.
"To get to the Western markets, to gain a foothold in them is a difficult task, including due to very high phytosanitary, veterinary and other requirements," the Secretary of the Security Council explained.
At the same time, Shoigu noted that Russia's losses from Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU will not be tangible.
On February 12, the National Assembly of Armenia approved in the first reading the draft law on starting the process of the country's accession to the EU.
Earlier, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Armenia does not plan to break economic ties and does not set the task of reducing the volume of trade turnover with the EEU and Russia.
According to him, Armenia is on the path of diversification of the economy and wants to increase trade turnover with the European Union as well.
The head of the government also noted that the beginning of the EU accession process balances some foreign policy risks. According to him, Armenia can become a member of the EU only if the people approve this initiative at the referendum. According to the Prime Minister, the main challenge facing Armenia in the process of joining the EU is the compliance with the EU standards.-0-
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