Armenia's Central Bank expects economic growth in the range of 5.3-6.4% in 2024

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Economy

18.03.2024, 17:43

Armenia's Central Bank said in a report that it expects the country's economic growth to be in the range of 5.3% to 6.4% in 2024.

Armenia's Central Bank expects economic growth in the range of 5.3-6.4% in 2024

YEREVAN, March 18. /ARKA/. Armenia's Central Bank said in a report that it expects the country's economic growth to be in the range of 5.3% to 6.4% in 2024.

Central Bank Chairman Martin Galstyan said earlier that the regulator is preparing to launch a new analytical system known as the second generation of the Policy Forecasting and Analysis System (FPAS Mark II) in 2024.

FPAS II builds on the current FPAS by emphasizing the role of uncertainty and transparency in the monetary policy implementation (MPI) process.

Thus, the Central Bank relies on two scenarios in its forecasts: in the first (A) scenario, the regulator's inflation forecasts are higher than those of market participants, while in the second (B) they are lower.

Thus, in scenario A, Armenia's GDP growth in 2024 is projected at 5.3%, while in scenario B - at 6.4%. The forecast for 2025 is 5.7-6.7%, and for 2026 - 5.4-6.4%.

The construction sector is expected to grow by 10.8-12.8% this year, manufacturing - by 5.7-6.2%, services - by 5.4-5.7%, net taxes - by 5.3-6.7%, and agriculture - by 2.5%.

Both scenarios assume inflation in Armenia at 1.3% at the end of this year, the forecast for 2025 is 4.6-4.1%, and for 2026 - 4.7-4.1%.

The Armenian government's forecast for economic growth in 2024 is 7%. The WB expects Armenia's economy to grow by 4.7% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. The IMF forecasts 5% growth in 2024.

Fitch Ratings; forecasts 6% growth in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025. S&P forecasts 6.2% growth in 2024, while the UN expects Armenia's economy to grow by 5.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025. -0-

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