EDB names drivers of inflation acceleration in Armenia in March

YEREVAN, April 7. /ARKA/. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has identified the factors that contributed to the acceleration of inflation in Armenia in March.

"Inflation in Armenia accelerated to 3.3% year-on-year (y/y) in March, up from 2.5% y/y in February. The increase in prices was primarily driven by higher food prices (+5.4% y/y in March compared to 4.5% y/y a month earlier) and services (+2.9% y/y in March, compared to 2.5% y/y the previous month). Additionally, the decline in prices for non-food products slowed down (-0.5% y/y in March, compared to -1.2% y/y a month earlier)," the EDB’s weekly macro review states.

The bank’s analysts have maintained their previous forecast, expecting inflation to remain within the Central Bank of Armenia’s target range (3% ±1%) this year.

Economic and Inflation Forecasts for Armenia

The Armenian state budget for 2025 assumes an inflation rate of 3% (±1%). Inflation in Armenia reached 3.3% y/y in March, up from 2.5% y/y a month earlier. According to the Central Bank’s monetary policy report for the first quarter of the year, inflation is expected to be in the range of 2.4-2.6% by the end of 2025. The forecast for 2026 is 2.9-3.1%, and for 2027, it is projected to be 3%.

The World Bank expects inflation in Armenia to reach 3.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. The IMF forecasts a 3.7% increase in prices for 2025. According to the ADB, inflation in Armenia will be 2.5% in 2025. The EDB anticipates inflation to be around 3.1% by the end of this year.