Gas for Armenia could rise in price by 69% to $300 if its EAEU membership is suspended – report
20.10.2026,
18:34
A scenario-based assessment of the consequences of a potential suspension of Armenia’s participation in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) projects an increase in the price of imported gas from $177.5 to $300 per thousand cubic meters, assuming the physical volume of supplies remains constant.
YEREVAN, October 20. /ARKA/. A scenario-based assessment of the consequences of a potential suspension of Armenia’s participation in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) projects an increase in the price of imported gas from $177.5 to $300 per thousand cubic meters, assuming the physical volume of supplies remains constant.
This is stated in a report on the potential implications of suspending the EAEU Treaty with regard to Armenia, prepared by members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council representing Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.
The authors note that the $300 per thousand cubic meters figure is purely indicative. The actual contractual price, depending on global gas market conditions, could be even higher.
Under these conditions, the authors calculate that the cost of gas imports to Armenia from EAEU member states would increase by $268.5 million a 69% rise climbing from $389 million in 2025 to $657.5 million following a potential suspension of the country’s participation in the Union.
The report singles out natural gas as a distinct category of imports, given its significant share in total supply, the specific nature of the gas transmission infrastructure, the limited number of supply sources, and low elasticity of substitution.
According to the authors, the rise in gas import costs would lead to higher expenses for both producers and households, ultimately exerting a negative impact on Armenia’s inflation and GDP in the medium to long term.
The report also notes that the increase in the cost of gas imports would partially offset the decline in the value of other imported product categories. At the same time, the authors point to rising costs for the Armenian economy.
According to the document, the suspension of the republic’s participation in the EAEU could affect the terms of bilateral energy cooperation with the Union’s member states notably due to Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU’s common gas market.
The report was prepared in pursuance of a joint statement by the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan dated May 29, 2026, for presentation at the December meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council.
Regarding gas prices
On April 1, 2026, in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that Russian gas costs less for Armenia than it does in Europe. He noted that gas prices in Europe were "soaring above $600 per thousand cubic meters, while Russia sells gas to Armenia at $177.5 per thousand cubic meters."
On April 9, commenting on the possibility of a price increase for Russian natural gas, Pashinyan stated that long-term contracts exist between Armenia and Russia and that these would not be violated.
On July 1 of this year, Armenia’s Public Services Regulatory Commission announced that natural gas tariffs for residential consumers would remain unchanged.
Regarding gas supplies to Armenia
The bulk of the natural gas consumed in Armenia is supplied by Russia via transit through Georgian territory. The exclusive supplier of natural gas for domestic consumption in Armenia is Gazprom Armenia CJSC—a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Russian company Gazprom PJSC.
This is stated in a report on the potential implications of suspending the EAEU Treaty with regard to Armenia, prepared by members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council representing Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.
The authors note that the $300 per thousand cubic meters figure is purely indicative. The actual contractual price, depending on global gas market conditions, could be even higher.
Under these conditions, the authors calculate that the cost of gas imports to Armenia from EAEU member states would increase by $268.5 million a 69% rise climbing from $389 million in 2025 to $657.5 million following a potential suspension of the country’s participation in the Union.
The report singles out natural gas as a distinct category of imports, given its significant share in total supply, the specific nature of the gas transmission infrastructure, the limited number of supply sources, and low elasticity of substitution.
According to the authors, the rise in gas import costs would lead to higher expenses for both producers and households, ultimately exerting a negative impact on Armenia’s inflation and GDP in the medium to long term.
The report also notes that the increase in the cost of gas imports would partially offset the decline in the value of other imported product categories. At the same time, the authors point to rising costs for the Armenian economy.
According to the document, the suspension of the republic’s participation in the EAEU could affect the terms of bilateral energy cooperation with the Union’s member states notably due to Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU’s common gas market.
The report was prepared in pursuance of a joint statement by the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan dated May 29, 2026, for presentation at the December meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council.
Regarding gas prices
On April 1, 2026, in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that Russian gas costs less for Armenia than it does in Europe. He noted that gas prices in Europe were "soaring above $600 per thousand cubic meters, while Russia sells gas to Armenia at $177.5 per thousand cubic meters."
On April 9, commenting on the possibility of a price increase for Russian natural gas, Pashinyan stated that long-term contracts exist between Armenia and Russia and that these would not be violated.
On July 1 of this year, Armenia’s Public Services Regulatory Commission announced that natural gas tariffs for residential consumers would remain unchanged.
Regarding gas supplies to Armenia
The bulk of the natural gas consumed in Armenia is supplied by Russia via transit through Georgian territory. The exclusive supplier of natural gas for domestic consumption in Armenia is Gazprom Armenia CJSC—a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Russian company Gazprom PJSC.
