IMF Predicts Armenia's GDP Growth to Rebound to 4.5%, Cautions on Potential Risks

YEREVAN, April 28. /ARKA/. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates that Armenia's real GDP growth will maintain its strength, eventually aligning with a potential growth rate of 4.5% by 2025 as trade and services stabilize and inflation aligns with the Central Bank of Armenia's targets.

This insight comes from an IMF team led by Iva Petrova after their recent visit to Armenia from March 31 to April 10.
Petrova highlighted potential risks to this economic forecast, citing the unprecedented uncertainty stemming from ongoing global trade tensions and the possibility of a growth slowdown among Armenia's trading partners. She also pointed to regional geopolitical shifts that may impact recent capital inflows and introduce volatility in exchange rates.

High economic activity in Armenia continues to show resilience, with real GDP projected to grow by 5.9% in 2024, driven primarily by robust consumption and investment. According to the IMF statement, employment growth has been steady and inflation remains manageable, gradually reaching 3.3% year-on-year as of March 2025.

The current account deficit saw a minor increase to 3.9% of GDP in 2024, influenced by lower inflows from trade, tourism, and remittances. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit for 2024 was contained at 3.7% of GDP, keeping government debt at a reasonable level of 48.3% of GDP. The banking sector is characterized by high profitability and solid capital and liquidity reserves, as noted by the IMF.

Armenia's economic growth in the 2025 state budget is anticipated to be 5.1%. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for Q1 this year, GDP growth is expected to range between 4.8% and 7% in 2025, 4.1% to 4.7% in 2026, and between 4.7% and 6.1% in 2027.