IMF leaves Armenia's economic growth forecast unchanged for 2024 and expects a slowdown in 2025

YEREVAN, 22 October. /ARKA/. The IMF expects Armenia's GDP growth to reach 6 per cent in 2024 and and slow down to 4.9 per cent in 2025, as domestic consumption and external demand slow down, the IMF said in a press release following an IMF team’s visit to Armenia, led by by IMF Armenian Mission Chief Iva Petrova from 18 September to 1 October.

The IMF's April World Economic Outlook predicted that the Armenian economy would grow by 6 per cent in 2024 and slow down to 5.2 per cent in 2025.“Armenia’s economic activity remains robust, with real GDP growing by 6.5 percent in the first half of the year, driven by domestic demand. Employment growth has been steady, averaging 19 percent since the start of 2023, while inflation has remained low at 0.6 percent year-on-year in September. The current account deficit has widened as transitory factors subside, and tourism and remittances continue to normalize. Preliminary data indicate that prudent execution of the 2024 budget has resulted in a small overall fiscal deficit through September 2024. Central government debt remains moderate at 48.4 percent of GDP at end 2023. The banking system enjoys strong capital and liquidity buffers, along with high profitability,’ the press release said.

It says also that significant risks to this outlook include geopolitical tensions and potential growth setbacks in trading partners, a reversal of capital inflows, and surges in global food and energy prices.

‘On the upside, growth could exceed expectations if net exports perform better than anticipated and if structural reforms and refugee integration are implemented more swiftly,’ according to IMF.

Armenia's economic growth in the state budget for 2024 is envisaged at the rate of 7%. The Central Bank expects the country's economy to grow in the range of 6.5-5.8 per cent in 2024.-0-