New US tariffs may have indirect consequences for Armenia - former finance minister
YEREVAN, April 9. /ARKA/. New tariffs announced by the United States for the economies of a number of countries, including Armenia, may indirectly affect Armenia, former Armenian Finance Minister Vardan Aramyan said in the "Arka Business" program on the ARKA YouTube channel.
US President Donald Trump has introduced new mirror duties on imported goods from 183 countries, including Armenia, which is subject to a 10% duty.
"This situation will directly affect us almost insignificantly, and indirectly - depending on the international situation. If there is a decrease in demand and an increase in prices throughout the world, then indirectly this will certainly affect us, but to what extent and in what period of time is still in question," Aramyan said, adding that no one can give a specific answer to this question now.
Answering the question about how significant the 10% rate is for Armenian exporters, the financier noted that “if we exclude re-exports to the UAE from Armenia’s total export volume of $13 billion, then by the end of 2024 this figure will be $6-7 billion.”
“It should be taken into account that Armenian export deliveries to USA are small — only $58 million. Now imagine a 30% decline, even a 60% decline, and $58 million will turn into, for example, $29 million. What will this share do in the total export volume of $13 billion? If we completely exclude re-export flows, since some of them also go to Russia, then we can talk about exports of up to $4 billion,” he said.
In this regard, the expert stated that one should not rush to make unambiguous predictions about whether the new duties will have a positive or negative impact on Armenia and whether they will lead to significant economic consequences.
At the same time, Aramyan believes that, without being tied to this situation, the Armenian government should make efforts to support domestic exporters.
"I have been talking about this since 2022, since the positive shock we had should definitely have led to the "strangulation" of the export segment, and now we see it. We see that industry and agriculture are growing much more modestly, their shares in GDP are decreasing, and the non-export sector is growing," he added.
According to Armstat, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the United States in 2024 amounted to about $ 410.6 million, recording a decline of 38.7% compared to 2023. Armenian exports to the United States amounted to about $ 58.9 million (an increase of 21.5%), and imports from the producing country to more than $ 351.6 million (a decrease of 43.4%).-0-
