Russia and Azerbaijan may settle their dispute over Gabala, if common sense prevails; Russian expert says

YEREVAN, July 23. /ARKA/. Russia and Azerbaijan may settle their dispute over the Gabala radar station, leased by Russia in Azerbaijan, if common sense prevails, Mikhail Alexandrov, a Russian political scientist and expert on the Caucasus at the CIS Institute, said today.

Moscow and Baku are currently negotiating the terms of a lease extension for the Gabala radar station. To Russia’s surprise – and dismay – Azerbaijani authorities are now asking Russia to pay $300 million a year instead of the seven million dollars a year previously paid. In late May 2012, Russia threatened to terminate the radar lease agreement. A Russian source close to the negotiations was quoted by Interfax news agency as saying that Moscow was stunned by the unjustified demand for a substantial lease price increase. Russia could build two new similar radar stations on its own territory for the same amount of money, it said.

December 24, 2012 will mark the end of the lease contract of the station, built by the Soviet Union in 1984 to monitor missile launches at distances as far as 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles) away. This remains Russia’s only military presence in Azerbaijan. Russian defense ministry said it would like to extend the contract until 2025. 

"Azerbaijan is now under very strong Western pressure. The West has promised it something. Moscow and Baku mail fail reach an agreement. But if common sense prevails in Baku, it should agree to extend the lease and drop its fee lease rise demand," he said Monday at Novosti international press center in Yerevan.

According to him, Gabala increases the value of Azerbaijan in Moscow's eyes. "Without Gabala Azerbaijan’s value for Moscow will slash and respectively its ability of influencing Moscow. I think it would be extremely disadvantageous for Azerbaijan. Gabala is not an issue, where Baku can sacrifice Moscow’s good attitude, he said.

Andrei Areshev, a representative of the Institute of Political and Social Research of the Black Sea and Caspian regions, said Russia is cutting on its presence in Gabala. The families of Russian officers were taken to Russia and the school for their children was shut. 

According to him, there is an element of political bargaining in the talks, but this issue should not be linked to Nagorno-Karabakh. "They are different questions. Gabala is a question of Russian-Azerbaijani relations, although there is an mixture of foreign influence, and the Nagorno-Karabakh problem has a wider foreign policy context, and I do not see any opportunities for trading here," said Areshev.  -0-