Armenia's accession to the EU could cost the country 23% of GDP – Russian Security Council
22.04.2026,
15:33
According to the most conservative estimates, joining the European Union will cost Armenia approximately 23% of GDP, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council (SC) Alexey Shevtsov told reporters.
YEREVAN, April 22. /ARKA/. According to the most conservative estimates, joining the European Union will cost Armenia approximately 23% of GDP, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council (SC) Alexey Shevtsov told reporters.
"Overall, according to the most conservative estimates, joining the EU will cost Armenia approximately 23% of GDP, while the massive contraction of the labor market (by 10.5 percentage points) and the increase in inflation by 22.6 percentage points will lead to a significant decline in living standards. Domestic consumption will fall by more than 20% from its current level. Further increases in energy prices, including natural gas, are expected," he noted, according to TASS.
Furthermore, Armenia's GDP could decline by 7.7% if it joins the European Union due to the need to implement the European customs control system.
"Armenia's accession to the EU will also require adaptation to European standards. Armenian goods will face EU market quotas and the need to comply with European technical regulations, which, in turn, will require additional investment," he noted.
According to Shevtsov, "the need to introduce a European customs control system will effectively put an end to the free transit of goods." As a result, Armenia's GDP is projected to decline by another 7.7%, domestic consumption will fall by 7.48%, inflation will increase by 8.3 percentage points, and unemployment by 4.1 percentage points, the Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation emphasized.
He also noted that Yerevan's accession to the EU and the potential introduction of a visa regime with Russia and Iran will significantly reduce the influx of tourists.
"Considering that tourism accounts for approximately 13.5% of Armenia's GDP, and that nearly a quarter of the officially employed population is employed in this sector, this will deal a severe blow to the country's economy and its residents," Shevtsov noted.
According to him, Yerevan's accession to European political sanctions will lead to a further contraction of the economy. "The transport sector will be particularly affected: the majority of Armenia's cargo turnover (up to 80%, according to the Eurasian Economic Commission) comes from Russia," Shevtsov noted. "Furthermore, joining the EU will significantly change tourist and transit passenger flows: according to the Armenian Tourism Committee, for 2025, almost half of tourists to Armenia come from Russia (41%) and Iran (another 8%), and annual income from Russian tourists reaches $1 billion."
Armenia-EU: Key Points
On March 26, 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a law on the country's accession process to the European Union. The document was signed by the president on April 4.
On December 2, the parties approved the strategic agenda for the Armenia-EU partnership in Brussels. Yerevan stated that this agenda focused on supporting the country's sovereignty, territorial integrity, democratic reforms, and economic sustainability.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasized that Armenia is moving toward EU standards while maintaining its membership in the EAEU. He stated that if combining both approaches becomes impossible, the next choice will be made together with the country's citizens.
"Overall, according to the most conservative estimates, joining the EU will cost Armenia approximately 23% of GDP, while the massive contraction of the labor market (by 10.5 percentage points) and the increase in inflation by 22.6 percentage points will lead to a significant decline in living standards. Domestic consumption will fall by more than 20% from its current level. Further increases in energy prices, including natural gas, are expected," he noted, according to TASS.
Furthermore, Armenia's GDP could decline by 7.7% if it joins the European Union due to the need to implement the European customs control system.
"Armenia's accession to the EU will also require adaptation to European standards. Armenian goods will face EU market quotas and the need to comply with European technical regulations, which, in turn, will require additional investment," he noted.
According to Shevtsov, "the need to introduce a European customs control system will effectively put an end to the free transit of goods." As a result, Armenia's GDP is projected to decline by another 7.7%, domestic consumption will fall by 7.48%, inflation will increase by 8.3 percentage points, and unemployment by 4.1 percentage points, the Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation emphasized.
He also noted that Yerevan's accession to the EU and the potential introduction of a visa regime with Russia and Iran will significantly reduce the influx of tourists.
"Considering that tourism accounts for approximately 13.5% of Armenia's GDP, and that nearly a quarter of the officially employed population is employed in this sector, this will deal a severe blow to the country's economy and its residents," Shevtsov noted.
According to him, Yerevan's accession to European political sanctions will lead to a further contraction of the economy. "The transport sector will be particularly affected: the majority of Armenia's cargo turnover (up to 80%, according to the Eurasian Economic Commission) comes from Russia," Shevtsov noted. "Furthermore, joining the EU will significantly change tourist and transit passenger flows: according to the Armenian Tourism Committee, for 2025, almost half of tourists to Armenia come from Russia (41%) and Iran (another 8%), and annual income from Russian tourists reaches $1 billion."
Armenia-EU: Key Points
On March 26, 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a law on the country's accession process to the European Union. The document was signed by the president on April 4.
On December 2, the parties approved the strategic agenda for the Armenia-EU partnership in Brussels. Yerevan stated that this agenda focused on supporting the country's sovereignty, territorial integrity, democratic reforms, and economic sustainability.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasized that Armenia is moving toward EU standards while maintaining its membership in the EAEU. He stated that if combining both approaches becomes impossible, the next choice will be made together with the country's citizens.
