Armenia's GDP could decline by 15.1% if it leaves the Eurasian Economic Union: Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council
22.04.2026,
15:29
If Armenia leaves the Eurasian Economic Union, its gross domestic product could decline by 15.1%, and inflation could rise by 14.3 percentage points.
YEREVAN, April 22. /ARKA/. If Armenia leaves the Eurasian Economic Union, its gross domestic product could decline by 15.1%, and inflation could rise by 14.3 percentage points. This estimate was presented to journalists by Alexey Shevtsov, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council.
According to him, the main damage will be in the metallurgy, beverage, tobacco, and food industries, where the decline will amount to up to one-third.
"According to the most conservative estimates, GDP will decline by 15.1% (approximately $3.65 billion), domestic consumption by 14.1%, and industrial production by 26.3%. The main losses will be in the metallurgy, beverage, tobacco, and food industries: the decline will be up to a third," the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council stated, according to TASS.
"Chemical production will decline by approximately a fifth, and textile production by 15%. Inflation will increase by 14.3 percentage points, and unemployment by 6.4 percentage points," he emphasized.
Shevtsov recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin, when receiving Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the Kremlin on April 1, explicitly stated that remaining in a customs union with the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union is impossible.
"Indeed, an association agreement with the European Union, which is a prerequisite for joining the EU, cannot be concluded if Armenia at that time has...
Shevtsov noted that Armenia's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union would primarily mean the reinstatement of export restrictions, the end of uniform requirements for products and services, the return of full customs control, the abolition of preferential treatment for migrants from that country, and the application of standard tariffs for cargo transportation.
"In practice, Armenian farmers, including alcohol producers, will have to seek new markets: with the introduction of customs duties, their goods will be sold indefinitely." "They will cease to be competitive. Freight transportation costs will increase, and investment will decline significantly. Yerevan will also have to forget about preferential energy supplies," the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council emphasized.
According to the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU will not significantly negatively impact other countries in the union; losses will amount to hundredths of a percent.
During a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Moscow on April 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow is relaxed about Yerevan's relations with the EU, but that membership in the EU and the EAEU is incompatible.
Pashinyan, in turn, said that Armenia is aware of the incompatibility of membership in both the EAEU and the EU, but will combine these agendas "as long as it is possible."
According to him, the main damage will be in the metallurgy, beverage, tobacco, and food industries, where the decline will amount to up to one-third.
"According to the most conservative estimates, GDP will decline by 15.1% (approximately $3.65 billion), domestic consumption by 14.1%, and industrial production by 26.3%. The main losses will be in the metallurgy, beverage, tobacco, and food industries: the decline will be up to a third," the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council stated, according to TASS.
"Chemical production will decline by approximately a fifth, and textile production by 15%. Inflation will increase by 14.3 percentage points, and unemployment by 6.4 percentage points," he emphasized.
Shevtsov recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin, when receiving Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the Kremlin on April 1, explicitly stated that remaining in a customs union with the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union is impossible.
"Indeed, an association agreement with the European Union, which is a prerequisite for joining the EU, cannot be concluded if Armenia at that time has...
Shevtsov noted that Armenia's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union would primarily mean the reinstatement of export restrictions, the end of uniform requirements for products and services, the return of full customs control, the abolition of preferential treatment for migrants from that country, and the application of standard tariffs for cargo transportation.
"In practice, Armenian farmers, including alcohol producers, will have to seek new markets: with the introduction of customs duties, their goods will be sold indefinitely." "They will cease to be competitive. Freight transportation costs will increase, and investment will decline significantly. Yerevan will also have to forget about preferential energy supplies," the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council emphasized.
According to the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU will not significantly negatively impact other countries in the union; losses will amount to hundredths of a percent.
During a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Moscow on April 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow is relaxed about Yerevan's relations with the EU, but that membership in the EU and the EAEU is incompatible.
Pashinyan, in turn, said that Armenia is aware of the incompatibility of membership in both the EAEU and the EU, but will combine these agendas "as long as it is possible."
