EAEU or EU: Armenia's foreign trade indicators amid plans for a European turnaround

YEREVAN, January 13. /ARKA/. On January 9, the Armenian government approved the draft law "On the beginning of the process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union." Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan spoke about the need to discuss and develop a joint "road map" with the EU.

At the same time, a comparative analysis of Armenia's foreign trade with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the European Union, published by the National Statistical Committee of the republic, clearly demonstrates a significant advantage in favor of the EAEU countries.

Thus, for the first 11 months of 2024, Armenia's trade with the EAEU not only grew significantly, but also accounted for more than 42% of the country’s total foreign trade turnover. Trade with the EU, on the other hand, not only decreased, but now makes up a modest 7.5% of the total.

These figures raise questions about the real economic feasibility of Armenia’s potential pivot towards the European Union, particularly considering the country’s declared political ambitions and the potential economic risks associated with changing its integration vector.

EAEU
Armenia’s foreign trade turnover with EAEU countries for the first 11 months of 2024 amounted to $11,905,281.6 thousand, an increase of 68.3% compared to the same period in 2023, according to the National Statistical Service of the country.
Armenian exports to the EAEU for the reporting period were $3,120,363.6 thousand, a decrease of 10.2%, while imports from EAEU countries amounted to $8,986,029.6 thousand, reflecting a 2.4-fold increase.
Armenia's largest partners in the EAEU are Russia (with a trade turnover of $11,624,796.6 thousand from January to November 2024, a 71.6% increase compared to 2023), Belarus ($190,482.1 thousand, up by 9%), and Kazakhstan ($76,321.1 thousand, a decrease of 22.3%).

EU
In contrast, Armenia’s foreign trade turnover with the EU countries for the same 11 months of 2024 amounted to $2,113,425.8 thousand, a decrease of 14.1% compared to the same period the previous year.
Exports to the EU amounted to $551,874.2 thousand, a decline of 18.6%, while imports from EU countries were $1,830,097.8 thousand, down by 11.2%.
Armenia’s largest partners in the EU are Germany (trade turnover of $443,911.6 thousand for January-November 2024, down by 24.4% compared to 2023), Italy ($382,383.0 thousand, a slight increase of 0.1%), and the Netherlands ($166,620.9 thousand, down by 42.3%).

Reaction of the parties to Armenia’s plans to turn towards the EU
Russia, Armenia’s largest trading partner, views Armenia’s intention to join the EU as incompatible with its membership in the EAEU. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Armenia will likely not be able to be part of both the EU and the EAEU simultaneously. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk emphasized that "if relations with the EAEU are curtailed in Armenia, energy and food prices will rise, while Armenian exports will decrease by 70-80%."

Meanwhile, the European Parliament’s permanent rapporteur on Armenia, Miriam Lexmann, welcomed the Armenian government’s decision to begin the process of joining the EU, noting that "those who meet the necessary conditions and share our values should always be welcome."

The Armenian opposition, however, views such statements by the authorities as misaligned with the will of the majority of the Armenian people, who are not considering leaving the EAEU or joining the EU. Furthermore, the European Union has not officially extended an invitation to Armenia.

The Treaty establishing the EAEU entered into force on January 1, 2015. The EAEU includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. In 2024, Armenia held the chairmanship of the EAEU bodies.
The main goals of the EAEU are to create conditions for the stable development of member states' economies in the interest of improving their populations' standard of living, to form a unified market for goods, services, capital, and labor resources, and to promote comprehensive modernization, cooperation, and increased competitiveness in the context of the global economy.