Fitch expects Armenia's economic growth to slow to 5.2% in 2026
13.07.2026,
16:16
International rating agency Fitch Ratings expects Armenia's economic growth to slow to 5.2% in 2026, down from 7.1% in 2025 following several years of similarly strong growth.
YEREVAN, July 13. /ARKA/. International rating agency Fitch Ratings expects Armenia's economic growth to slow to 5.2% in 2026, down from 7.1% in 2025 following several years of similarly strong growth. However, it remains significantly above the 'BB' median of 2.9%.
On July 10, Fitch Ratings affirmed Armenia's long-term foreign- and local-currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB-' with a Positive Outlook.
"Armenia's low dependence on oil limits its exposure to the war in Iran, but the impact of Russian import restrictions remains uncertain. "The government and the EU are offering exporters financial support and tariff incentives to mitigate the impact," the agency noted.
Fitch forecasts medium-term growth to stabilize at around 5% as recent supply shocks fade, supported by a vibrant ICT sector and the opening of the Amulsar gold mine.
"Several large-scale infrastructure investment projects could provide additional long-term growth potential, including the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity—a corridor connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan and onward to Turkey," the report states.
It also notes that plans to build a new artificial intelligence data center have been expanded, with investment potentially reaching 12% of GDP.
Sustainable implementation of the peace agreement and the reopening of the border with Turkey could provide additional impetus to growth through increased investment, exports, and employment.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
The 2026 state budget projects 5.4% economic growth for Armenia. According to preliminary statistics, Armenia's GDP grew by 4% in the first quarter of this year compared to January-March 2025.
According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 4.5-4.1% by the end of 2026, depending on scenario (A-B), 4.7-3.7% in 2027, and 5-6.2% in 2028.
International financial institutions forecast Armenia's economic growth for 2026: World Bank - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB - 5.5%; EBRD - 5.5%; EDB - 6%; S&P Global Ratings - 5.3%. Fitch Ratings – 5.2%.
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On July 10, Fitch Ratings affirmed Armenia's long-term foreign- and local-currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB-' with a Positive Outlook.
"Armenia's low dependence on oil limits its exposure to the war in Iran, but the impact of Russian import restrictions remains uncertain. "The government and the EU are offering exporters financial support and tariff incentives to mitigate the impact," the agency noted.
Fitch forecasts medium-term growth to stabilize at around 5% as recent supply shocks fade, supported by a vibrant ICT sector and the opening of the Amulsar gold mine.
"Several large-scale infrastructure investment projects could provide additional long-term growth potential, including the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity—a corridor connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan and onward to Turkey," the report states.
It also notes that plans to build a new artificial intelligence data center have been expanded, with investment potentially reaching 12% of GDP.
Sustainable implementation of the peace agreement and the reopening of the border with Turkey could provide additional impetus to growth through increased investment, exports, and employment.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
The 2026 state budget projects 5.4% economic growth for Armenia. According to preliminary statistics, Armenia's GDP grew by 4% in the first quarter of this year compared to January-March 2025.
According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 4.5-4.1% by the end of 2026, depending on scenario (A-B), 4.7-3.7% in 2027, and 5-6.2% in 2028.
International financial institutions forecast Armenia's economic growth for 2026: World Bank - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB - 5.5%; EBRD - 5.5%; EDB - 6%; S&P Global Ratings - 5.3%. Fitch Ratings – 5.2%.
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