WB improves Armenia's economic growth forecast for 2025
YEREVAN, January 17. /ARKA/. The World Bank expects Armenia's economy to grow by 5% in 2025 and by 4.6% in 2026. This forecast is included in the World Bank's January 2025 Global Economic Prospects report.
At the same time, the forecast for Armenia's economic growth in 2024 is 5.5%. In a study published last June, the 2024 forecast was the same — 5.5%, while the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been improved by 0.1 percentage points.
January Forecasts from the World Bank
According to the World Bank report, global economic growth is expected to reach 2.7% in 2025-2026. As noted in the document, global growth is "stabilizing as inflation approaches target levels, and monetary easing is supporting activity in both advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies." The report also highlights that "stronger trade and investment" are positively influencing growth rates.
However, the report points out that global economic growth is relatively low. The projected 2.7% growth is below the average global growth rate of 3.1% in the decade preceding the pandemic.
The report further states that "economic growth in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region slowed to 3.2% in 2024." This slowdown is primarily due to weaker economic growth in the Russian Federation and Turkey, driven in part by tighter monetary policies and elevated inflation. Additionally, "lower-than-expected growth in Russia could significantly affect the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, mainly due to a decrease in remittance volumes."
Projections for Armenia’s Economy
Armenia’s economic growth is projected at 7% in the 2024 state budget and 5.1% in the 2025 budget. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for Q4 of this year, Armenia’s GDP growth is expected to be 6% by the end of 2024. The forecast for 2025 is between 4.8% and 7.1%, for 2026 between 4.7% and 7%, and for 2027 between 5% and 6.2%.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts Armenia's GDP growth at 6% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025. The World Bank expects 5.5% growth in 2024 and 5% growth in 2025. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects 6% growth for Armenia in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts 6.2% growth in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts 5.7% growth in 2024 and 6% in 2025. Fitch Ratings expects 6% growth in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025. Standard & Poor’s (S&P) anticipates 6.2% growth in 2024, while the United Nations (UN) forecasts 6% growth for 2024, 5.2% for 2025, and 4.7% for 2026.