World Bank has identified the main risks and opportunities for the Armenian economy
29.07.2026,
13:43
A possible increase in tensions between Armenia and Russia could negatively impact not only trade but also the overall socioeconomic situation in the country, said Armine Manukyan, Senior Economist at the World Bank (WB).
YEREVAN, July 29. /ARKA/. A possible increase in tensions between Armenia and Russia could negatively impact not only trade but also the overall socioeconomic situation in the country, said Armine Manukyan, Senior Economist at the World Bank (WB).
According to her, the World Bank does not yet have a quantitative estimate of the possible impact of deteriorating Armenian-Russian relations on Armenia's economic growth.
"The situation continues to evolve and changes almost daily. We may be able to estimate this impact when preparing the next forecast, but it is impossible to provide a specific figure right now," Manukyan said on Wednesday at the presentation of the WB report "Armenia's Economic Pulse: Towards Poverty-Reducing Growth through More Effective Fiscal Policy."
Key Risks
Among other negative factors for the Armenian economy, Manukyan cited the possible indirect consequences of the protracted conflict in the Middle East.
According to her, these could manifest themselves in the disruption of trade routes and interruptions in the supply of certain goods. Domestic political tensions could pose an additional risk, the economist noted.
Opportunities for Growth
According to Manukyan, normalizing relations with neighboring countries and deepening regional interconnectedness could have a positive impact on the Armenian economy.
She also cited new strategic investment commitments from the United States and the European Union as favorable factors.
"These factors could contribute to improving the investment environment, attracting additional investment, and increasing economic resilience," Manukyan said.
According to her, their impact on Armenia's economic growth could be particularly noticeable in the medium term.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
The 2026 state budget projects 5.4% economic growth in Armenia. According to the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, preliminary data show that economic activity in Armenia grew by 7.9% in January-June 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 4.5-4.1% by the end of 2026, 4.7-3.7% in 2027, and 5-6.2% in 2028, depending on scenario (A-B).
The following are the economic growth forecasts for Armenia from international financial institutions for 2026: World Bank - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB - 5.5%; EBRD - 5.5%; EDB - 6%; S&P Global Ratings - 5.3%; Fitch Ratings - 5.2%.
According to her, the World Bank does not yet have a quantitative estimate of the possible impact of deteriorating Armenian-Russian relations on Armenia's economic growth.
"The situation continues to evolve and changes almost daily. We may be able to estimate this impact when preparing the next forecast, but it is impossible to provide a specific figure right now," Manukyan said on Wednesday at the presentation of the WB report "Armenia's Economic Pulse: Towards Poverty-Reducing Growth through More Effective Fiscal Policy."
Key Risks
Among other negative factors for the Armenian economy, Manukyan cited the possible indirect consequences of the protracted conflict in the Middle East.
According to her, these could manifest themselves in the disruption of trade routes and interruptions in the supply of certain goods. Domestic political tensions could pose an additional risk, the economist noted.
Opportunities for Growth
According to Manukyan, normalizing relations with neighboring countries and deepening regional interconnectedness could have a positive impact on the Armenian economy.
She also cited new strategic investment commitments from the United States and the European Union as favorable factors.
"These factors could contribute to improving the investment environment, attracting additional investment, and increasing economic resilience," Manukyan said.
According to her, their impact on Armenia's economic growth could be particularly noticeable in the medium term.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
The 2026 state budget projects 5.4% economic growth in Armenia. According to the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, preliminary data show that economic activity in Armenia grew by 7.9% in January-June 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 4.5-4.1% by the end of 2026, 4.7-3.7% in 2027, and 5-6.2% in 2028, depending on scenario (A-B).
The following are the economic growth forecasts for Armenia from international financial institutions for 2026: World Bank - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB - 5.5%; EBRD - 5.5%; EDB - 6%; S&P Global Ratings - 5.3%; Fitch Ratings - 5.2%.
