Central Bank of Armenia: Russian restrictions on Armenian exports could have a deflationary effect of up to 0.6%
24.06.2026,
18:31
Russia's restrictions on the import of certain Armenian goods could, in an unfavorable scenario, have a deflationary impact on the Armenian economy—up to 0.6 percentage points in the general price level, stated Martin Galstyan, Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia.
YEREVAN, June 24. /ARKA/. Russia's restrictions on the import of certain Armenian goods could, in an unfavorable scenario, have a deflationary impact on the Armenian economy—up to 0.6 percentage points in the general price level, stated Martin Galstyan, Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia.
On the Public Television of Armenia, he noted that the total volume of goods exported from Armenia to Russia accounts for approximately 6% of the country's GDP.
Meanwhile, products that have already encountered problems supplying the Russian market are estimated to account for approximately 2% of GDP.
"In a risky scenario, we will have a certain amount of goods, amounting to approximately 2% of GDP, that will either not be exported to Russia because Russian restrictions will be long-term, or some of them will be able to be exported to Europe because these goods meet the necessary standards and quality for the European market, or they will not be exported to either Europe or Russia and will remain on the Armenian market. In this case, according to our estimates, they could have a deflationary impact on the overall price level of up to 0.6%," Galstyan explained.
According to the head of the Central Bank, the impact of Russian restrictions will depend on two key factors: their duration and the ability of Armenian producers to redirect supplies to alternative markets.
He noted that the ability of Armenian goods to enter other markets, including Europe, remains an important factor. Otherwise, according to Galstyan, these goods will remain on the Armenian market, increasing supply and creating a deflationary effect.
Restrictions on the supply of Armenian products to Russia
Effective June 12, 2026, Russia has restricted the import of all quarantine products originating in and shipped from Armenia, as well as their transit through Russia to EAEU member states. Rosselkhoznadzor's restrictions specifically apply to Jermuk mineral water, alcoholic beverages, vegetables, fruits, and herbs.
The agency cited the "systematic detection of quarantine organisms" in plant products and flowers from Armenia as the reason. It is noted that the ban will remain in effect until a specific algorithm for ensuring the safety and traceability of shipped goods is developed.
On the Public Television of Armenia, he noted that the total volume of goods exported from Armenia to Russia accounts for approximately 6% of the country's GDP.
Meanwhile, products that have already encountered problems supplying the Russian market are estimated to account for approximately 2% of GDP.
"In a risky scenario, we will have a certain amount of goods, amounting to approximately 2% of GDP, that will either not be exported to Russia because Russian restrictions will be long-term, or some of them will be able to be exported to Europe because these goods meet the necessary standards and quality for the European market, or they will not be exported to either Europe or Russia and will remain on the Armenian market. In this case, according to our estimates, they could have a deflationary impact on the overall price level of up to 0.6%," Galstyan explained.
According to the head of the Central Bank, the impact of Russian restrictions will depend on two key factors: their duration and the ability of Armenian producers to redirect supplies to alternative markets.
He noted that the ability of Armenian goods to enter other markets, including Europe, remains an important factor. Otherwise, according to Galstyan, these goods will remain on the Armenian market, increasing supply and creating a deflationary effect.
Restrictions on the supply of Armenian products to Russia
Effective June 12, 2026, Russia has restricted the import of all quarantine products originating in and shipped from Armenia, as well as their transit through Russia to EAEU member states. Rosselkhoznadzor's restrictions specifically apply to Jermuk mineral water, alcoholic beverages, vegetables, fruits, and herbs.
The agency cited the "systematic detection of quarantine organisms" in plant products and flowers from Armenia as the reason. It is noted that the ban will remain in effect until a specific algorithm for ensuring the safety and traceability of shipped goods is developed.
