ARKA Armenia Weekly: Key Events of the Week: Politics, Economy, and Markets (April 20–26)
YEREVAN, April 27. /ARKA/. ARKA News Agency presents a digest of the past week's key events.
SUMMARY
The main theme of the week was a combination of the political and memorial agenda, pre-election economic targets, and infrastructure decisions. The 111th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide once again became a factor in the domestic and foreign political framework, and statements by the leaders of Armenia, Russia, and the United States emphasized the international dimension of the topic.
In the economy, the key focus shifted to the "Civil Contract" program for 2026-2031: the authorities outlined targets for GDP growth, industry, exports, nuclear energy, infrastructure, and capital markets. For businesses, the week provided several practical signals—from reduced electricity connection rates to a judicial pause regarding the transfer of the ENA to state ownership. For markets, the main conclusion remains cautious: strategic goals are becoming more concrete, but their implementation depends on political stability, the quality of administration, and external economic risks.
POLITICS
The 111th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire became the central political topic of the week. On April 24, Armenia and abroad honored the memory of the victims; in Yerevan, hundreds of thousands of people traditionally ascended to the Tsitsernakaberd memorial. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the state and peace are the guarantee that the Genocide will not be repeated; Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that the international community must prevent such tragedies from recurring; and US President Donald Trump stated that he honors the memory of the Armenians expelled and murdered during the Mets Yeghern. For Armenia, this topic remains not only historical but also foreign policy: it shapes the context of relations with partners and influences security rhetoric.
A separate political and institutional signal came from the European direction. It was announced that members of the European Parliament will discuss a resolution on April 28 on EU support for Armenia's democratic sustainability in the wake of the upcoming elections; the vote is scheduled for April 30. For businesses, this is important as an indicator that the European agenda for Armenia will include not only reforms and partnership, but also the stability of political institutions.
In the aviation sector, the government plans to sign an agreement with the ICAO and allocate 321 million drams for this purpose; concurrently, the Civil Aviation Committee will be reorganized. The authorities explain this decision by the need for external expertise and increased regulatory efficiency. For investors in transport, tourism, and services, this is an attempt to strengthen the institutional framework of the aviation market.
Regional logistics remained a sensitive issue. Russia called Yerevan's statements about the possible cession of the concession for the management of the Armenian railway to another country strange. For markets, the dispute itself is important as a reminder that Armenia's infrastructure agenda remains linked to foreign policy restrictions and the interests of major players.
ECONOMY AND MACROSIGNALS
The key economic theme of the week was the ruling party's "Civil Contract" program for 2026-2031. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan presented 100 measures, including: average annual GDP growth of at least 6%; increasing industrial production from the current 3.3 trillion to 5 trillion drams; doubling exports of Armenian products to $8.9 billion; practical implementation of the TRIPP; construction of a second terminal at Zvartnots Airport; and increasing the capital market value to 1.3 trillion drams by 2031. The authorities also intend to launch a program to build a new nuclear power unit by the end of 2027, having selected the technology and partner for the project by that date. For businesses, this set of benchmarks will serve as a benchmark for the market to evaluate future industrial, energy, and investment policies.
One of the key topics of the week was tax revenues from major companies. According to the State Revenue Committee, the 1,000 largest taxpayers in Armenia transferred over 459.3 billion drams to the budget from January to March 2026, which is 49.9 billion drams, or 12.2%, more than the same period in 2025. For the budget, this is an indicator of the sustainability of the corporate tax base; for businesses, it indicates the continued concentration of the fiscal burden on the largest market participants.
The World Bank's April report on Armenia noted that economic activity in the country slowed in February, but growth remained stable, driven by two sectors. Separately, the WB noted that export growth in February was driven by a more than threefold increase in mining exports. This is an important nuance for macroeconomic assessment: overall indicators maintain positive dynamics, but the structure of growth remains sensitive to individual sectors. In the energy sector, a significant decision was the reduction of tariffs for connecting new subscribers to the Electric Networks of Armenia by up to 40%, and fees for increasing or connecting new capacity by up to 55%. This could reduce initial costs for companies launching new production facilities, constructing, and expanding capacity.
External risks also remained a focus. The crisis in the Middle East could increase economic pressure on Armenia, Professor Vladimir Avatkov, head of the Department of Near and Post-Soviet East at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, stated in an interview with the ARKA news agency. Against this backdrop, estimates by Alexey Shevtsov, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council, were also voiced: according to him, Armenia's GDP could decline by 15.1% if it leaves the Eurasian Economic Union, while joining the EU could cost approximately 23% of GDP. For markets, this is not a consensus forecast, but a signal that Armenia's foreign economic choices will remain subject to political and economic competition.
BUSINESS AND CORPORATE SECTOR
The situation surrounding Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) has become a major issue on the corporate agenda. An Armenian court has suspended the transfer of ENA to state ownership until May 25, Vardan Aloyan, attorney at Tashir Capital (ENA's owner), told ARKA. This case is important for businesses, as it demonstrates that major corporate and infrastructure decisions remain sensitive to legal procedures and judicial restrictions.
The government has extended a pilot program to support investment in livestock farming, worth approximately 82.4 billion drams, for a year and a half. Eleven agreements have already been signed under the program; the stated goal is to increase investment in livestock farming and reduce dependence on imports. While this represents an example of sectoral support for businesses, the authorities acknowledged delays related to environmental assessments, approvals, and construction permits. In the aviation industry, the announcement of plans to establish direct flights between Yerevan and London in 2026 was a significant signal. Flights to Brussels and the Netherlands are also being discussed, as well as increased use of Shirak Airport in Gyumri. This expands the potential market for tourism, hospitality, and business mobility, but the practical impact will depend on schedules, carrier competition, and ticket prices.
MARKETS AND FINANCE
For the financial market, Pashinyan's stated goal of increasing the capital market value from 664 billion drams in 2025 to 1.3 trillion drams by 2031 has become an important benchmark. If this goal is supported by new instruments and issuers, businesses will have greater opportunities to attract financing outside the banking sector. For now, this is more of a strategic signal than a direct change in market liquidity.
In the capital management market, a notable event was an interview with ARKA news agency with Olga Omelchenko, Deputy Executive Director of Wilco Wealth Management, about how a capital management culture is developing in Armenia. The main market signal is a gradual shift from a narrow understanding of brokerage to a more comprehensive approach: investment decisions, risk profiling, long-term planning, and trust management are becoming part of the financial infrastructure.
The infrastructure agenda has also acquired a financial dimension. The Ajapnyak metro station construction project in Yerevan is estimated to cost 107.3 billion drams, or approximately $287.4 million; the program's internal rate of return is 15.3%. For investors, this is an example of a major urban project that could impact transportation connectivity, real estate values, and the capital's budget priorities.
The energy market has been swayed by the announcement that Gazprom will create an operational reserve of 0.107 billion cubic meters in its underground storage facility in Armenia by the start of the gas withdrawal season. This is a factor in the seasonal stability of energy supply, especially given the economy's sensitivity to external supply routes and energy prices.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
Economic policy enters the election cycle with specific quantitative targets.
The memorial and foreign policy agenda remains part of the investment context.
The growth of tax revenues from major companies confirms the stability of the fiscal base, but the issue of burden concentration and the quality of tax administration remains.
Energy remains a key sector of risk and opportunity.
The financial market is gradually shifting from a banking-dominated environment to a broader capital management culture.
RISKS OF THE CURRENT WEEK
Markets will be watching to see how pre-election economic targets are supported by implemented decisions.
Investors will assess whether the government can advance energy and infrastructure projects without delays.
External risks in the Middle East could impact logistics, import costs, and inflation expectations. The debate over the balance between the EU and the EAEU may remain sensitive for exporters, investors, and companies dependent on external markets.
For the energy market, the situation surrounding the ENA remains a significant factor.
The financial market will be sensitive to whether practical mechanisms for expanding the capital market and attracting new issuers emerge.
