Armenia's merchandise trade deficit to widen to 10.7% of GDP in 2026-2027 – ADB
18.04.2026,
14:37
Armenia's merchandise trade deficit will widen to about 10.7% of GDP in 2026 and 2027 amid disruptions in export markets and supply chains, according to the ADB's Asian Development Outlook (April 2026).
YEREVAN, April 18. /ARKA/. Armenia's merchandise trade deficit will widen to about 10.7% of GDP in 2026 and 2027 amid disruptions in export markets and supply chains, according to the ADB's Asian Development Outlook (April 2026).
Merchandise exports are projected to grow by 11.0% in 2026 and 17.9% in 2027, driven by increased exports of non-ferrous metals, manufactured goods, and processed food products.
Merchandise imports are expected to increase by 15.9% in 2026 and 15.7% in 2027, as capital goods imports for large public and private investment projects continue. "The services surplus is expected to narrow in 2026 before recovering in 2027, reflecting weaker tourism, softer financial flows, and conflict-related pressure on transport services. The revenue deficit is expected to narrow gradually as subdued income payments to non-residents reduce net outflows and revenue growth slows," the report says.
ADB analysts also forecast the current account deficit to widen to about 6.1% of GDP in 2026 before narrowing to 5.6% in 2027, reflecting the impact of the Middle East conflict through higher transport costs, trade disruptions, and elevated import prices. According to Armstat, Armenia's foreign and mutual trade turnover in January-February 2026 increased by 9.3% compared to January-February 2025, reaching $3.06 billion. Armenia's exports increased by 12.6% during the reporting period, reaching $1.17 billion, while imports amounted to $1.89 billion, representing a 7.3% increase.
Merchandise exports are projected to grow by 11.0% in 2026 and 17.9% in 2027, driven by increased exports of non-ferrous metals, manufactured goods, and processed food products.
Merchandise imports are expected to increase by 15.9% in 2026 and 15.7% in 2027, as capital goods imports for large public and private investment projects continue. "The services surplus is expected to narrow in 2026 before recovering in 2027, reflecting weaker tourism, softer financial flows, and conflict-related pressure on transport services. The revenue deficit is expected to narrow gradually as subdued income payments to non-residents reduce net outflows and revenue growth slows," the report says.
ADB analysts also forecast the current account deficit to widen to about 6.1% of GDP in 2026 before narrowing to 5.6% in 2027, reflecting the impact of the Middle East conflict through higher transport costs, trade disruptions, and elevated import prices. According to Armstat, Armenia's foreign and mutual trade turnover in January-February 2026 increased by 9.3% compared to January-February 2025, reaching $3.06 billion. Armenia's exports increased by 12.6% during the reporting period, reaching $1.17 billion, while imports amounted to $1.89 billion, representing a 7.3% increase.
