Central Bank has identified risks to the Armenian economy from a possible increase in Russian gas prices
15.09.2026,
19:55
A possible increase in Russian gas prices for Armenia could lead to higher inflation and create risks for the economy, said Martin Galstyan, Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia, at a press conference on Tuesday.
YEREVAN, September 15. /ARKA/. A possible increase in Russian gas prices for Armenia could lead to higher inflation and create risks for the economy, said Martin Galstyan, Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia, at a press conference on Tuesday.
A gas price increase, he said, could have a dual effect. "First of all, it could have a primary effect associated with an increase in the overall inflation rate, as well as a secondary effect, since the price of gas could be included in the cost of other goods—greenhouse products, manufacturing, and so on," he said.
Galstyan explained that this could entail a certain risk associated with an economic downturn.
"Therefore, the Central Bank kept this scenario in mind and took it into account, but in our view, this is a Type X scenario—it is neither Type A nor Type B. It implies something more apocalyptic, to which our response must be stronger and go beyond the usual regime," he said.
Galstyan added that the Central Bank is currently operating in the usual regime, but is taking these potential risks into account.
According to the Central Bank, the Type A scenario is associated with higher demand in the domestic economy, further expansion of external demand, and the risk of rising inflation expectations, which require a higher path for the monetary policy rate compared to market expectations.
The Type B scenario is associated with the prospect of a slowdown in global economic growth, the emergence of deflationary risks due to export restrictions to Russia, and a fundamental decline in Armenia's country risk premium, which imply a lower path for the monetary policy rate compared to market expectations.
A gas price increase, he said, could have a dual effect. "First of all, it could have a primary effect associated with an increase in the overall inflation rate, as well as a secondary effect, since the price of gas could be included in the cost of other goods—greenhouse products, manufacturing, and so on," he said.
Galstyan explained that this could entail a certain risk associated with an economic downturn.
"Therefore, the Central Bank kept this scenario in mind and took it into account, but in our view, this is a Type X scenario—it is neither Type A nor Type B. It implies something more apocalyptic, to which our response must be stronger and go beyond the usual regime," he said.
Galstyan added that the Central Bank is currently operating in the usual regime, but is taking these potential risks into account.
According to the Central Bank, the Type A scenario is associated with higher demand in the domestic economy, further expansion of external demand, and the risk of rising inflation expectations, which require a higher path for the monetary policy rate compared to market expectations.
The Type B scenario is associated with the prospect of a slowdown in global economic growth, the emergence of deflationary risks due to export restrictions to Russia, and a fundamental decline in Armenia's country risk premium, which imply a lower path for the monetary policy rate compared to market expectations.
