Economic activity in Armenia grew steadily in Q1 despite heightened uncertainty – WB
19.05.2026,
15:20
Economic activity in Armenia grew by 7.1% year-on-year in Q1 2026, compared to 4.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating robust growth despite heightened uncertainty.
YEREVAN, May 19. /ARKA/. Economic activity in Armenia grew by 7.1% year-on-year in Q1 2026, compared to 4.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating robust growth despite heightened uncertainty. This is according to the World Bank's "Armenia Monthly Economic Update – May 2026."
The study notes that economic activity slowed to 6.6% year-on-year in March from 7.2% year-on-year in February.
"The growth was primarily driven by robust construction activity, which increased by 24%, while industrial growth slowed to 7% year-on-year after double-digit growth in the previous month. This slowdown reflected a sharp weakening of manufacturing growth to 1.3% in March from 23.8% in February, driven by lower production of base metals and food products," the report states.
It is also noted that the high growth rate of production in the mining sector - 28% - largely reflected the low base effect.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
The 2026 state budget projects economic growth in Armenia at 5.4%. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the first quarter of this year, by the end of 2026, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 7.1-4.7%, depending on scenario (A-B), in 2027 - 5.7-5.3%, and in 2028 - 4.9-5.2%.
Armenian economic growth forecasts from international financial institutions for 2026: EDB - 5.3%; World Bank – 5.3%; IMF – 5.3%; ADB – 5.5%; EBRD – 5.5%; S&P Global Ratings – 5.3%; Fitch Ratings – above 5% (for 2026-2027).
The study notes that economic activity slowed to 6.6% year-on-year in March from 7.2% year-on-year in February.
"The growth was primarily driven by robust construction activity, which increased by 24%, while industrial growth slowed to 7% year-on-year after double-digit growth in the previous month. This slowdown reflected a sharp weakening of manufacturing growth to 1.3% in March from 23.8% in February, driven by lower production of base metals and food products," the report states.
It is also noted that the high growth rate of production in the mining sector - 28% - largely reflected the low base effect.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
The 2026 state budget projects economic growth in Armenia at 5.4%. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the first quarter of this year, by the end of 2026, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 7.1-4.7%, depending on scenario (A-B), in 2027 - 5.7-5.3%, and in 2028 - 4.9-5.2%.
Armenian economic growth forecasts from international financial institutions for 2026: EDB - 5.3%; World Bank – 5.3%; IMF – 5.3%; ADB – 5.5%; EBRD – 5.5%; S&P Global Ratings – 5.3%; Fitch Ratings – above 5% (for 2026-2027).
