Armenia's accession to EU is currently unrealistic, while withdrawing from EAEU carries risks: former deputy prime minister
YEREVAN, October 13. /ARKA/. Armenia’s accession to the European Union is unrealistic in the foreseeable future, while a potential withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could trigger political and economic pressure, including in the gas supply sector. This view was expressed by former Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Vache Gabrielyan during the "Daser" ("Lessons") program aired by the outlet 168.am.
According to him, when assessing the prospects for European integration, it is essential to consider not only political statements but also the country's economic and institutional capabilities.
Prospects for Armenia’s EU Accession
"Let us examine the issue from the perspective of economic prospects. First of all, how realistic is accession to the European Union? I think everyone understands that this is unrealistic in the foreseeable future," Gabrielyan noted.
He added that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has also stated there is no real alternative at this stage, citing this as the reason for his reluctance to hold a referendum on European integration.
Gabrielyan noted that, to his knowledge, Armenia does not feature in the EU's immediate enlargement plans as a country whose accession is being considered at a practical level. Meanwhile, relevant EU documents do mention prospects for Kosovo's advancement.
Furthermore, Armenia is still far from meeting a number of European market requirements—particularly regarding product certification—and lacks the necessary infrastructure.
Tariff concessions do not guarantee access to the European market
Gabrielyan emphasized that tariff concessions alone do not ensure sustainable growth in Armenian exports to the EU.
He noted that such concessions are granted based on political decisions and are subject to revision. Moreover, the reduction or elimination of customs duties does not remove other barriers to exports.
"No one has ever claimed that the primary constraint on exporting our products to Europe is tariffs, rather than product quality or the lack of necessary infrastructure," he explained.
As Gabrielyan pointed out, entering the European market requires a comprehensive set of conditions, including product certification, established connections with distributors and wholesale buyers, marketing expenditures, and the building of trust in Armenian goods.
European partners need to be familiar with Armenian products, confident in their quality, and interested in selling them. Establishing such commercial ties takes time.
"From this perspective, one cannot say that we have fully open access to the European market. While we currently face no tariff barriers, the full infrastructure required for robust exporting is not yet in place," Gabrielyan noted.
He added that the state cannot single-handedly secure producers' access to foreign distributors and retail chains.
According to him, wholesale buyers are driven by commercial interests and will not invest significant resources in promoting products that lack competitiveness or fail to meet their requirements.
Withdrawing from the EAEU could entail political pressure
Gabrielyan noted that even if Armenia were to choose a European path, it would not automatically become a member of the European Union. Transitioning to a different model of economic relations will require time and the resolution of a number of issues.
At the same time, he assesses that a potential withdrawal from the EAEU also entails risks.
"There is a political issue here as well, since there is no legal mechanism by which we could be expelled from the EAEU. However, there is a risk of political pressure and other measures that could force the issue to be discussed," he said.
According to Gabrielyan, it is difficult at this stage to predict what form such pressure might take whether legal, military, or economic.
He identified Armenia's gas supply as one possible avenue for such pressure.
Gas prices and supplies as potential tools of pressure
Gabrielyan estimates there are several scenarios in which the gas issue could be used to exert pressure on Armenia. These include a revision of current pricing terms, a gradual increase in gas costs, and a complete halt to supplies.
He highlighted the significant gap between the pricing terms currently applicable to Armenia and the potential cost levels should those terms be revised.
He noted that the price of gas for Armenia is approximately $165–177, whereas a comparison with a level of around €600 reveals a substantial difference. He pointed out that there is no universal rule guaranteeing the maintenance of the current price rather than an increase—for instance, to €420 or €510.
Thus, in Gabrielyan’s assessment, a significant change in gas supply terms would not necessarily constitute a violation of a specific legal norm, as the current price level is not enshrined as an immutable obligation.
He also acknowledged the possibility that a halt in gas supplies could be attributed to technical issues such as a pipeline malfunction rather than an explicitly stated political decision.
Trade Restrictions and Phytosanitary Inspections
Gabrielyan noted that economic pressure can also be exerted through measures that do not formally contravene existing legal regulations.
He cited potential restrictions on Armenian agricultural exports as an example; such measures could be justified by the need to undergo phytosanitary inspections and comply with established standards.
"They might claim that the produce must undergo laboratory phytosanitary testing but fails to meet the requirements. Since there is a certain degree of discretion involved in inspections and quality assessments, such measures can be applied without directly violating legal norms," he explained.
According to Gabrielyan, the parties involved may interpret the reasons for such restrictions differently: one side might view them as a trade barrier, while the other cites the product's failure to meet established standards.
"In this instance, the issue shifts from the economic to the non-economic realm, and such pressure can take a wide variety of forms," Gabrielyan concluded.
