EDB raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Armenia to 6% and sees no reason to revise it
25.06.2026,
14:59
Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) analysts have raised their 2026 economic growth forecast for Armenia from 5.3% to 6% and see no reason to revise it downwards, despite Russia's restrictions on Armenian exports, said Alexey Kuznetsov, Head of the EDB's Analytical Directorate.
YEREVAN, June 25. /ARKA/. Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) analysts have raised their 2026 economic growth forecast for Armenia from 5.3% to 6% and see no reason to revise it downwards, despite Russia's restrictions on Armenian exports, said Alexey Kuznetsov, Head of the EDB's Analytical Directorate.
According to the current macroeconomic forecast, EDB analysts expect Armenia's economy to grow by 5.7% in 2027 (the December 2025 forecast was 5.3%), and by 5.3% in 2028 (the previous forecast was 5.1%). Noting that the EDB publishes forecasts semi-annually, Kuznetsov said Armenia's economy continues to gain momentum, and that many internal drivers are at play in this growth.
"Therefore, we don't expect any obvious, significant slowdown, and we haven't yet included it in our baseline forecast. If we see a shift in the situation (and we monitor it constantly), we will reflect this in our November macroeconomic forecast, which will cover the situation in 2027," he said on the sidelines of a business forum dedicated to the EDB's 20th anniversary.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
The 2026 state budget projects 5.4% economic growth for Armenia. According to preliminary statistics, Armenia's GDP grew 4% in the first quarter of this year compared to January-March 2025.
According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the first quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 7.1-4.7% by the end of 2026, 5.7-5.3% in 2027, and 4.9-5.2% in 2028, depending on scenarios (A-B).
Forecasts for Armenian economic growth from international financial institutions for 2026: World Bank - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB - 5.5%; EBRD - 5.5%; EDB - 6%; S&P Global Ratings - 5.3%; Fitch Ratings - above 5% (for 2026-2027).
According to the current macroeconomic forecast, EDB analysts expect Armenia's economy to grow by 5.7% in 2027 (the December 2025 forecast was 5.3%), and by 5.3% in 2028 (the previous forecast was 5.1%). Noting that the EDB publishes forecasts semi-annually, Kuznetsov said Armenia's economy continues to gain momentum, and that many internal drivers are at play in this growth.
"Therefore, we don't expect any obvious, significant slowdown, and we haven't yet included it in our baseline forecast. If we see a shift in the situation (and we monitor it constantly), we will reflect this in our November macroeconomic forecast, which will cover the situation in 2027," he said on the sidelines of a business forum dedicated to the EDB's 20th anniversary.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
The 2026 state budget projects 5.4% economic growth for Armenia. According to preliminary statistics, Armenia's GDP grew 4% in the first quarter of this year compared to January-March 2025.
According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the first quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 7.1-4.7% by the end of 2026, 5.7-5.3% in 2027, and 4.9-5.2% in 2028, depending on scenarios (A-B).
Forecasts for Armenian economic growth from international financial institutions for 2026: World Bank - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB - 5.5%; EBRD - 5.5%; EDB - 6%; S&P Global Ratings - 5.3%; Fitch Ratings - above 5% (for 2026-2027).
