Expanding import restrictions by Russia could affect Armenia's exports by approximately 2% of GDP – S&P
24.08.2026,
22:30
Expanding import restrictions by Russia from mineral water and alcohol to flowers, fish products, and a wide range of fresh fruits and vegetables could affect Armenia's exports by approximately 2% of GDP, according to a report by the international rating agency S&P Global Ratings.
YEREVAN, August 24. /ARKA/. Expanding import restrictions by Russia from mineral water and alcohol to flowers, fish products, and a wide range of fresh fruits and vegetables could affect Armenia's exports by approximately 2% of GDP, according to a report by the international rating agency S&P Global Ratings.
Tightening Restrictions by Russia
The agency's analysts note that Armenia's exports are highly concentrated: Russia accounts for between 80% and 98% of the various products affected by the restrictions.
"Since agricultural supplies occur during the summer-fall harvest season, we expect this effect to intensify in the second half of 2026, which will put pressure on agricultural production volumes, rural incomes, and export revenues," the report states.
The review notes that despite support for producers and efforts to diversify export markets (including the EU), these measures only partially offset the short-term impact.
"The risk of further trade restrictions remains a negative factor for our baseline scenario," the review emphasizes.
The impact could be mitigated by export diversification and tourism sector performance.
"Despite Russia's trade restrictions, we forecast a moderate narrowing of the current account deficit (CAD) to 8.0% of GDP in 2026 (from 8.7% in 2025), reflecting weakening domestic demand and resilience in services exports, particularly in tourism and ICT," the review states.
S&P notes that tourist arrivals increased by almost 15% in the first half of 2026, with Russia (40%), Georgia (15%), and Iran (8%) the main destinations.
"We expect that improved air travel, competitive pricing, and tourism sector development will support strong budget revenues from the tourism sector. "In the medium term, we forecast a gradual reduction in the STO deficit to around 6% of GDP as domestic demand normalizes, export diversification progresses, and tourism revenues continue to grow," the report states.
Regarding restrictions on imports of Armenian products to Russia
Since the end of May, Russia has been gradually introducing restrictions on the import of certain products from Armenia, citing violations of phytosanitary requirements. The restrictions include flowers, mineral water, certain beverages and alcoholic beverages, vegetables, fruits, berries, grapes, potatoes, dried fruits, and later live fish and fish products, and, starting on July 27, dairy products.
The restrictions also include a ban on the transit of products of Armenian origin through Russia to other EAEU countries.
On August 10, Vazgen Poghosyan, head of the Central Bank of Armenia's monetary policy department, stated that the impact of Russian measures could affect 1-1.5% of Armenia's GDP.
Tightening Restrictions by Russia
The agency's analysts note that Armenia's exports are highly concentrated: Russia accounts for between 80% and 98% of the various products affected by the restrictions.
"Since agricultural supplies occur during the summer-fall harvest season, we expect this effect to intensify in the second half of 2026, which will put pressure on agricultural production volumes, rural incomes, and export revenues," the report states.
The review notes that despite support for producers and efforts to diversify export markets (including the EU), these measures only partially offset the short-term impact.
"The risk of further trade restrictions remains a negative factor for our baseline scenario," the review emphasizes.
The impact could be mitigated by export diversification and tourism sector performance.
"Despite Russia's trade restrictions, we forecast a moderate narrowing of the current account deficit (CAD) to 8.0% of GDP in 2026 (from 8.7% in 2025), reflecting weakening domestic demand and resilience in services exports, particularly in tourism and ICT," the review states.
S&P notes that tourist arrivals increased by almost 15% in the first half of 2026, with Russia (40%), Georgia (15%), and Iran (8%) the main destinations.
"We expect that improved air travel, competitive pricing, and tourism sector development will support strong budget revenues from the tourism sector. "In the medium term, we forecast a gradual reduction in the STO deficit to around 6% of GDP as domestic demand normalizes, export diversification progresses, and tourism revenues continue to grow," the report states.
Regarding restrictions on imports of Armenian products to Russia
Since the end of May, Russia has been gradually introducing restrictions on the import of certain products from Armenia, citing violations of phytosanitary requirements. The restrictions include flowers, mineral water, certain beverages and alcoholic beverages, vegetables, fruits, berries, grapes, potatoes, dried fruits, and later live fish and fish products, and, starting on July 27, dairy products.
The restrictions also include a ban on the transit of products of Armenian origin through Russia to other EAEU countries.
On August 10, Vazgen Poghosyan, head of the Central Bank of Armenia's monetary policy department, stated that the impact of Russian measures could affect 1-1.5% of Armenia's GDP.
