S&P expects Armenia's GDP growth to slow in 2026
24.08.2026,
22:25
International rating agency S&P Global Ratings forecasts Armenia's real GDP growth to slow to 4.9% in 2026, down from 7.1% in 2025.
YEREVAN, August 24. /ARKA/. International rating agency S&P Global Ratings forecasts Armenia's real GDP growth to slow to 4.9% in 2026, down from 7.1% in 2025.
"This is partly due to weakening consumer demand and lower exports due to Russia's restrictions on certain Armenian goods," the report states.
The agency's analysts note that while exporters are likely to redirect their products to alternative markets (including the EU), this episode highlights the country's continued dependence on the Russian market and the vulnerability of certain export sectors.
"Nevertheless, strong investment activity should support growth. We expect average annual growth rates to reach 5% in 2027-2029, driven by consumer and investment activity," the report states.
The 2026 state budget projects economic growth in Armenia at 5.4%. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 4.5-4.1% by the end of 2026, depending on scenarios (A-B).
International financial institutions' economic growth forecasts for Armenia for 2026 are as follows: World Bank - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB - 5.5%; EBRD - 5.5%; EDB - 6%; S&P Global Ratings - 4.9%; Fitch Ratings - 5.2%.
"This is partly due to weakening consumer demand and lower exports due to Russia's restrictions on certain Armenian goods," the report states.
The agency's analysts note that while exporters are likely to redirect their products to alternative markets (including the EU), this episode highlights the country's continued dependence on the Russian market and the vulnerability of certain export sectors.
"Nevertheless, strong investment activity should support growth. We expect average annual growth rates to reach 5% in 2027-2029, driven by consumer and investment activity," the report states.
The 2026 state budget projects economic growth in Armenia at 5.4%. According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP growth is expected to be 4.5-4.1% by the end of 2026, depending on scenarios (A-B).
International financial institutions' economic growth forecasts for Armenia for 2026 are as follows: World Bank - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB - 5.5%; EBRD - 5.5%; EDB - 6%; S&P Global Ratings - 4.9%; Fitch Ratings - 5.2%.
