Economic activity growth in Armenia exceeded forecasts over 5 months – WB
17.07.2026,
17:31
Economic activity in Armenia grew by 8% (y/y) in the first five months of 2026, exceeding forecasts, according to the World Bank's "Armenia Monthly Economic Update – July 2026."
YEREVAN, July 17. /ARKA/. Economic activity in Armenia grew by 8% (y/y) in the first five months of 2026, exceeding forecasts, according to the World Bank's "Armenia Monthly Economic Update – July 2026."
"The sharp growth in economic activity in Armenia in May, by 11.7% (y/y), compared to 7.1% (y/y) in April, was driven by an increase in non-tradable services (by 14.7%), particularly activities related to tourism, the hospitality sector, transportation, and IT," the study states.
World Bank analysts, citing preliminary data, note that the number of tourist visits to Armenia in the first half of 2026 increased by 14.8%, exceeding 1 million people, 40% of which came from Russia.
"The services sector could also be supported by high activity in the lead-up to the June parliamentary elections," the study notes.
Construction and mining continued to demonstrate double-digit growth rates—27.1% and 21.6%, respectively. Mining continued to demonstrate positive dynamics thanks to the recovery that began in late 2025 from the recession, as well as high copper prices.
Manufacturing grew by 7.4%, driven by increased food and beverage production, which, along with cigarettes, accounted for 60% of the sector's total output. "Overall, economic activity grew by 8% (year-on-year) in the first five months of 2026, exceeding projected figures," the statement reads.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
The 2026 state budget projects economic growth in Armenia at 5.4%. According to preliminary statistics, Armenia's GDP grew by 4% in the first quarter of this year compared to January-March 2025.
According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP is expected to grow by 4.5-4.1% by the end of 2026, depending on scenario (A-B), 4.7-3.7% in 2027, and 5-6.2% in 2028.
Armenian economic growth forecasts from international financial institutions for 2026: World Bank - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB – 5.5%, EBRD – 5.5%, EDB – 6%, S&P Global Ratings – 5.3%; Fitch Ratings – 5.2%.
"The sharp growth in economic activity in Armenia in May, by 11.7% (y/y), compared to 7.1% (y/y) in April, was driven by an increase in non-tradable services (by 14.7%), particularly activities related to tourism, the hospitality sector, transportation, and IT," the study states.
World Bank analysts, citing preliminary data, note that the number of tourist visits to Armenia in the first half of 2026 increased by 14.8%, exceeding 1 million people, 40% of which came from Russia.
"The services sector could also be supported by high activity in the lead-up to the June parliamentary elections," the study notes.
Construction and mining continued to demonstrate double-digit growth rates—27.1% and 21.6%, respectively. Mining continued to demonstrate positive dynamics thanks to the recovery that began in late 2025 from the recession, as well as high copper prices.
Manufacturing grew by 7.4%, driven by increased food and beverage production, which, along with cigarettes, accounted for 60% of the sector's total output. "Overall, economic activity grew by 8% (year-on-year) in the first five months of 2026, exceeding projected figures," the statement reads.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
The 2026 state budget projects economic growth in Armenia at 5.4%. According to preliminary statistics, Armenia's GDP grew by 4% in the first quarter of this year compared to January-March 2025.
According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, Armenia's GDP is expected to grow by 4.5-4.1% by the end of 2026, depending on scenario (A-B), 4.7-3.7% in 2027, and 5-6.2% in 2028.
Armenian economic growth forecasts from international financial institutions for 2026: World Bank - 5.3%; IMF - 5.25%; ADB – 5.5%, EBRD – 5.5%, EDB – 6%, S&P Global Ratings – 5.3%; Fitch Ratings – 5.2%.
